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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0PLOS One

The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Nathan Seegert1
  • Maclean Gaulin2
  • Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk3
  • Francisco Navarro-Sanchez4
  • Danielle Nguyen5
  • Mu-Jeung Yang6
  • Richard E. Nelson7
7 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Finance, Northeastern University, Massachusetts, United States of America
  2. 2School of Accounting, University of Utah, Utah, United States of America
  3. 3Department of Pharmacotherapy, University of Utah, Utah, United States of America
  4. 4Department of Economics, Allegheny College, Pennsylvania, United States of America
  5. 5Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma, United States of America
  6. 6IDEAS Center, Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, United States of America
  7. 7Division of Epidemiology, University of Utah, Utah, United States of America
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Abstract

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers used mask mandates as a tool to signal that, due to the amount of virus circulating at the time, social behaviors might be risky. Because of the geographically specific nature of disease transmission information, these signals would be more informative in smaller geographic units. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of policy information revelation by quantifying the impact of state versus county mask mandates on economic activity. Methods: We constructed a longitudinal dataset of US counties from April to September 2020 including the period immediately surrounding a COVID-19 mask mandate policy. In our primary analysis, we used a regression discontinuity approach with economic activity measured as county-level cell phone mobility and credit card spending. Results: We found that state mask mandates were associated with an increase in economic activity (coefficient = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.44,1.65) and spending per person (coefficient = $143, 95% CI: $102, $185). On the other hand, we found no statistically significant effects following county mask mandates. Conclusion: Using variation in the level of government enacting a policy, we find that mobility and spending are higher after a US state mask mandate than a county mandate, consistent with information revelation.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{seegert2026impact,
  title = {{The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic}},
  author = {Nathan Seegert and Maclean Gaulin and Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk and Francisco Navarro-Sanchez and Danielle Nguyen and Mu-Jeung Yang and Richard E. Nelson},
  journal = {PLOS One},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0332243},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332243},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic
AU  - Nathan Seegert
AU  - Maclean Gaulin
AU  - Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk
AU  - Francisco Navarro-Sanchez
AU  - Danielle Nguyen
AU  - Mu-Jeung Yang
AU  - Richard E. Nelson
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/03
JO  - PLOS One
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0332243
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332243
AB  - Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers used mask mandates as a tool to signal that, due to the amount of virus circulating at the time, social behaviors might be risky. Because of the geographically specific nature of disease transmission information, these signals would be more informative in smaller geographic units. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of policy information revelation by quantifying the impact of state versus county mask mandates on economic activity. Methods: We constructed a longitudinal dataset of US counties from April to September 2020 including the period immediately surrounding a COVID-19 mask mandate policy. In our primary analysis, we used a regression discontinuity approach with economic activity measured as county-level cell phone mobility and credit card spending. Results: We found that state mask mandates were associated with an increase in economic activity (coefficient = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.44,1.65) and spending per person (coefficient = $143, 95% CI: $102, $185). On the other hand, we found no statistically significant effects following county mask mandates. Conclusion: Using variation in the level of government enacting a policy, we find that mobility and spending are higher after a US state mask mandate than a county mandate, consistent with information revelation.
SN  - 1932-6203
ER  -