Household contact management of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a global cost-effectiveness modelling analysis of expanded preventive treatment by age
- 1Division of Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Abstract
BackgroundTuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) with levofloxacin reduces tuberculosis disease incidence in multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR)-tuberculosis household contacts. However, with age, disease progression risk falls and the frequency of adverse events (AE) rises.
MethodsTo inform decision-makers, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanding the use of MDR/RR-TPT by age, with and without tests of tuberculosis infection. We modelled MDR/RR-household contact management (HHCM) in 189 countries, incorporating age-dependent risks of disease progression, death and AEs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as USD/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, and as a fraction of per capita gross domestic product (GDP).
FindingsCompared to baseline of MDR/RR-HHCM with TPT for those <15 years, adding TPT up to 45 years was cost-effective at a threshold of 30% GDP in 160/189 modelled countries including 17 of the 30 highest incidence countries. Of these 160 countries, the intervention was cost-saving in 46. Strategies targeting TPT to those testing positive for M. tuberculosis infection were dominated by those without testing. Globally, full use of MDR/RR-HHCM with TPT for all would avert 11,900 (10,400 to 13,800) episodes of tuberculosis, 9,960 (9,100 to 10,900) deaths, and 289,000 (262,000 to 321,000) DALYs, but would result in 71,000 (68,000 to 74,000) SAEs and cost $359 million (294 to 449).
InterpretationExpanding MDR/RR-TPT use to older ages without testing appears cost-effective in most settings, but may require substantial resources and result in large numbers of AEs.
FundingUnitaid
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BibTeX
@misc{mafirakureva2026household,
title = {{Household contact management of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a global cost-effectiveness modelling analysis of expanded preventive treatment by age}},
author = {N. Mafirakureva and C. F. McQuaid and M. Harker and A. Garcia-Prats and A. C. Hesseling and J. A. Seddon and P. Dodd},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.01.26364489},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.01.26364489v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Household contact management of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a global cost-effectiveness modelling analysis of expanded preventive treatment by age
AU - N. Mafirakureva
AU - C. F. McQuaid
AU - M. Harker
AU - A. Garcia-Prats
AU - A. C. Hesseling
AU - J. A. Seddon
AU - P. Dodd
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.01.26364489
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.01.26364489v1
AB - BackgroundTuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) with levofloxacin reduces tuberculosis disease incidence in multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR)-tuberculosis household contacts. However, with age, disease progression risk falls and the frequency of adverse events (AE) rises. MethodsTo inform decision-makers, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanding the use of MDR/RR-TPT by age, with and without tests of tuberculosis infection. We modelled MDR/RR-household contact management (HHCM) in 189 countries, incorporating age-dependent risks of disease progression, death and AEs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as USD/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, and as a fraction of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). FindingsCompared to baseline of MDR/RR-HHCM with TPT for those <15 years, adding TPT up to 45 years was cost-effective at a threshold of 30% GDP in 160/189 modelled countries including 17 of the 30 highest incidence countries. Of these 160 countries, the intervention was cost-saving in 46. Strategies targeting TPT to those testing positive for M. tuberculosis infection were dominated by those without testing. Globally, full use of MDR/RR-HHCM with TPT for all would avert 11,900 (10,400 to 13,800) episodes of tuberculosis, 9,960 (9,100 to 10,900) deaths, and 289,000 (262,000 to 321,000) DALYs, but would result in 71,000 (68,000 to 74,000) SAEs and cost $359 million (294 to 449). InterpretationExpanding MDR/RR-TPT use to older ages without testing appears cost-effective in most settings, but may require substantial resources and result in large numbers of AEs. FundingUnitaid
ER -