A century of sea-level change in Ireland (1925–2024)
- 1National University of Ireland, Maynooth (Maynooth, Ireland)
Abstract
Understanding long-term sea-level change is crucial for assessing coastal vulnerability and guiding adaptation planning, particularly by identifying regions most at risk. Central to this understanding is the availability of long-term sea-level data. In Ireland, digitized records longer than 40 years are rare and mostly confined to the northeast; however, data archaeology – including the digitization of historical marigrams – can fill spatial and temporal gaps where undigitized records exist. Previous studies have focused primarily on individual sites in the north and east. Here we show that integrating previously undocumented records from the southwest with well-documented datasets provides a comprehensive assessment of relative mean sea-level (RSL) change across the country. Modelled RSL rates were obtained from the rate field of the hierarchical Bayesian reconstruction. Mean modelled RSL rates over 1925–2024 ranged from 0.73 mm yr ⁻¹ at Belfast to 1.43 mm yr ⁻¹ at Tarbert in southwest Ireland, reflecting the combined influence of the shared regional signal, site-specific linear Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA)-related contributions, and local effects. The network-mean modelled RSL rate for Ireland was 1.21 mm yr ⁻¹ (95 % CI: 0.90–1.55) over 1925–2024, increasing from 0.59 mm yr ⁻¹ (95 % CI: 0.19–1.02) during 1925–2000 to 3.13 mm yr ⁻¹ (95 % CI: 2.45–3.81) during 2000–2024, indicating a substantial acceleration in recent decades. These historical records provide a robust basis for reconstructing regional RSL rise and contextualising future coastal risk.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{mcloughlin2026century,
title = {{A century of sea-level change in Ireland (1925–2024)}},
author = {Patrick J. McLoughlin and Maeve Upton and Lionel D. Swan and Glenn Nolan and Kieran Hickey and Robin Edwards and Catherine O'Beirne and Gerard D. McCarthy},
journal = {Ocean Science},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/os-22-3499-2026},
url = {https://os.copernicus.org/articles/22/3499/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A century of sea-level change in Ireland (1925–2024)
AU - Patrick J. McLoughlin
AU - Maeve Upton
AU - Lionel D. Swan
AU - Glenn Nolan
AU - Kieran Hickey
AU - Robin Edwards
AU - Catherine O'Beirne
AU - Gerard D. McCarthy
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/29
JO - Ocean Science
DO - 10.5194/os-22-3499-2026
UR - https://os.copernicus.org/articles/22/3499/2026/
AB - Understanding long-term sea-level change is crucial for assessing coastal vulnerability and guiding adaptation planning, particularly by identifying regions most at risk. Central to this understanding is the availability of long-term sea-level data. In Ireland, digitized records longer than 40 years are rare and mostly confined to the northeast; however, data archaeology – including the digitization of historical marigrams – can fill spatial and temporal gaps where undigitized records exist. Previous studies have focused primarily on individual sites in the north and east. Here we show that integrating previously undocumented records from the southwest with well-documented datasets provides a comprehensive assessment of relative mean sea-level (RSL) change across the country. Modelled RSL rates were obtained from the rate field of the hierarchical Bayesian reconstruction. Mean modelled RSL rates over 1925–2024 ranged from 0.73 mm yr ⁻¹ at Belfast to 1.43 mm yr ⁻¹ at Tarbert in southwest Ireland, reflecting the combined influence of the shared regional signal, site-specific linear Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA)-related contributions, and local effects. The network-mean modelled RSL rate for Ireland was 1.21 mm yr ⁻¹ (95 % CI: 0.90–1.55) over 1925–2024, increasing from 0.59 mm yr ⁻¹ (95 % CI: 0.19–1.02) during 1925–2000 to 3.13 mm yr ⁻¹ (95 % CI: 2.45–3.81) during 2000–2024, indicating a substantial acceleration in recent decades. These historical records provide a robust basis for reconstructing regional RSL rise and contextualising future coastal risk.
SN - 1812-0792
ER -