Impact of climate change on the photovoltaic power potential in Sweden across 21st century
Abstract
Solar photovoltaic generation strongly relies on weather conditions, which will be affected by future climate change. Traditional methods for estimating photovoltaic generation potential often overlook detailed installation factors and snow impacts, leading to inaccuracies in high-latitude areas. We assess future photovoltaic system performance in Sweden using a validated photovoltaic installation model that incorporates air temperature, radiation and snow conditions. Applying this model to four Swedish cities under low- and high-emission climate change scenarios and three climate simulations, we project an approximate 5% increase in photovoltaic generation relative to the historical period with optimal installation angle. The combined effects of air temperature and snowfall are as crucial as solar radiation for photovoltaic generation in Sweden, so the photovoltaic generation change will be relatively limited by 2100. Optimized tilt angles are obtained for all the four cities, which could increase photovoltaic generation by 3-6% compared to the commercial angle. The findings also provide valuable insights into photovoltaic potential in a changing climate.
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BibTeX
@article{ruan2026impact,
title = {{Impact of climate change on the photovoltaic power potential in Sweden across 21st century}},
author = {Tianqi Ruan and Fuxing Wang and Björn Laumert and Aitor Aldama-Campino and Wujun Wang},
journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-04091-w},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-04091-w},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Impact of climate change on the photovoltaic power potential in Sweden across 21st century
AU - Tianqi Ruan
AU - Fuxing Wang
AU - Björn Laumert
AU - Aitor Aldama-Campino
AU - Wujun Wang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/11
JO - Communications Earth & Environment
DO - 10.1038/s43247-026-04091-w
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-04091-w
AB - Solar photovoltaic generation strongly relies on weather conditions, which will be affected by future climate change. Traditional methods for estimating photovoltaic generation potential often overlook detailed installation factors and snow impacts, leading to inaccuracies in high-latitude areas. We assess future photovoltaic system performance in Sweden using a validated photovoltaic installation model that incorporates air temperature, radiation and snow conditions. Applying this model to four Swedish cities under low- and high-emission climate change scenarios and three climate simulations, we project an approximate 5% increase in photovoltaic generation relative to the historical period with optimal installation angle. The combined effects of air temperature and snowfall are as crucial as solar radiation for photovoltaic generation in Sweden, so the photovoltaic generation change will be relatively limited by 2100. Optimized tilt angles are obtained for all the four cities, which could increase photovoltaic generation by 3-6% compared to the commercial angle. The findings also provide valuable insights into photovoltaic potential in a changing climate.
SN - 2662-4435
ER -