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PreprintarXiv licencearXiv

Optimal state detection without likelihood estimation

  • M. D. K. Lee
  • Z. Chai
  • J. Z. F. Seng
  • K. J. Arnold
  • M. ~D. ~Barrett
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Abstract

We show that adaptive Bayesian estimation in fluorescence state detection reduces to a comparison of elapsed time with two arithmetic time sequences fixed by the bright and dark count rates and confidence parameters εd and εb. No probabilities are computed in real time and the resulting implementation, which we term sequential deadline detection, is provably optimal in mean detection time. The analysis permits closed-form expressions for detection-time distributions, mean detection times, error rates of both channels accounting for miscalibrated rates, decay between the states during detection, and afterpulsing in single photon counting modules. The predictions are validated by Monte Carlo simulation and demonstrated by fluorescence detection with Ba+

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{lee2026optimal,
  title = {{Optimal state detection without likelihood estimation}},
  author = {M. D. K. Lee and Z. Chai and J. Z. F. Seng and K. J. Arnold and M. ~D. ~Barrett},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.02644},
  eprint = {2610.02644},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02644},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Optimal state detection without likelihood estimation
AU  - M. D. K. Lee
AU  - Z. Chai
AU  - J. Z. F. Seng
AU  - K. J. Arnold
AU  - M. ~D. ~Barrett
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/02
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.02644
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02644
AB  - We show that adaptive Bayesian estimation in fluorescence state detection reduces to a comparison of elapsed time with two arithmetic time sequences fixed by the bright and dark count rates and confidence parameters ε_d and ε_b. No probabilities are computed in real time and the resulting implementation, which we term sequential deadline detection, is provably optimal in mean detection time. The analysis permits closed-form expressions for detection-time distributions, mean detection times, error rates of both channels accounting for miscalibrated rates, decay between the states during detection, and afterpulsing in single photon counting modules. The predictions are validated by Monte Carlo simulation and demonstrated by fluorescence detection with Ba^+
ER  -