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Peer-reviewedCC BYNational Science Review

Alarming decline in the carbon sink of European forests driven by disturbances

  • François Ritter1,2
  • Philippe Ciais1
  • Cornelius Senf3
  • Maurizio Santoro4
  • Yidi Xu1
  • Agnès Pellissier‐Tanon1
  • Martin Schwartz1
  • Ibrahim Fayad1
  • Nuno Carvalhais5
  • Martin Brandt2
  • Rasmus Fensholt2
  • Simon Besnard6
1 more authors
  • Valerio Avitabile7
7 affiliations
  1. 1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay , Gif-sur-Yvette 91191 ,
  2. 2University of Copenhagen Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, , Copenhagen 1350 ,
  3. 3Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising 85354 ,
  4. 4Gamma Remote Sensing , Gümligen 3073 ,
  5. 5Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry , Jena 07745 ,
  6. 6GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences , Potsdam 14473 ,
  7. 7Consultant for Engineering Ingegneria Informatica S.p.A. , Rome 00144 ,
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Abstract

Forests are carbon sinks essential for climate change mitigation. However, increased harvests and natural disturbances across Europe have recently challenged this role. To project the future carbon sink capacity of Europe's forests, we integrated country reports from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with remote sensing maps of disturbances and above-ground biomass. Our model simulates biomass dynamics at 18 km resolution from 2010 to 2030, predicting a 39% decrease in the EU-27 forest carbon sink, driven by disturbances outpacing biomass recovery. Consequently, the 2030 forest carbon sink will fall 27% short of the estimated target consistent with EU-27 climate objectives. We demonstrate that the three billion trees initiative is insufficient for climate change mitigation and needs to be combined with a 28% reduction in forest harvests from 2025 to 2030 to meet these targets.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{ritter2026alarming,
  title = {{Alarming decline in the carbon sink of European forests driven by disturbances}},
  author = {François Ritter and Philippe Ciais and Cornelius Senf and Maurizio Santoro and Yidi Xu and Agnès Pellissier‐Tanon and Martin Schwartz and Ibrahim Fayad and Nuno Carvalhais and Martin Brandt and Rasmus Fensholt and Simon Besnard and Valerio Avitabile},
  journal = {National Science Review},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwag354},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwag354},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Alarming decline in the carbon sink of European forests driven by disturbances
AU  - François Ritter
AU  - Philippe Ciais
AU  - Cornelius Senf
AU  - Maurizio Santoro
AU  - Yidi Xu
AU  - Agnès Pellissier‐Tanon
AU  - Martin Schwartz
AU  - Ibrahim Fayad
AU  - Nuno Carvalhais
AU  - Martin Brandt
AU  - Rasmus Fensholt
AU  - Simon Besnard
AU  - Valerio Avitabile
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/10
JO  - National Science Review
DO  - 10.1093/nsr/nwag354
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwag354
AB  - Forests are carbon sinks essential for climate change mitigation. However, increased harvests and natural disturbances across Europe have recently challenged this role. To project the future carbon sink capacity of Europe's forests, we integrated country reports from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with remote sensing maps of disturbances and above-ground biomass. Our model simulates biomass dynamics at 18 km resolution from 2010 to 2030, predicting a 39% decrease in the EU-27 forest carbon sink, driven by disturbances outpacing biomass recovery. Consequently, the 2030 forest carbon sink will fall 27% short of the estimated target consistent with EU-27 climate objectives. We demonstrate that the three billion trees initiative is insufficient for climate change mitigation and needs to be combined with a 28% reduction in forest harvests from 2025 to 2030 to meet these targets.
SN  - 2053-714X
SN  - 2095-5138
ER  -