Too hot to race? Demonstrating heat stress modelling as an adaptation tool for endurance events
- 1Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
- 2Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- 3Antea Group Belgium, Antwerp, Belgium
Abstract
Heat stress is an increasing concern as climate change drives more frequent and intense extreme heat episodes. In particular, participants in outdoor endurance events face a high risk of heat stress related health issues due to prolonged exposure to heat and physical exertion. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely used ISO-standard heat stress index that integrates air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and radiation (both shortwave and longwave) to assess heat stress. Meteorological heat stress metrics such as WBGT can be used to activate heat management plans and to guide or evaluate heat mitigation strategies. To this end, we present a modelling system that combines a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a micro-scale radiation model to simulate meter-scale heat stress. We conducted a mobile measurement campaign to collect spatio-temporal WBGT data along the 2024 Dodentocht, a 100-km ultra-endurance hiking event in Belgium. These observations were used to evaluate the modelling system, which demonstrated a reasonable approximation of the observed WBGT along the route and was able to capture some local shade-induced cooling effects. Finally, we used the modelling system as an adaptation tool to simulate various event-management scenarios, including alternative start times, routes, and walking speeds. For the 2024 Dodentocht, starting 3 hours earlier, at 18:00 local time (UTC + 2), would have reduced the cumulative heat-stress exposure, measured as degree hours above 20∘C WBGT, by 35%. The 2023 route exhibited 16.5% more cumulative degree hours above 20∘C WBGT than the 2024 route for the official 21:00 start time under identical meteorological conditions. Our findings demonstrate the potential of high-resolution heat stress modelling systems as reliable and actionable tools to support the development and implementation of effective heat management strategies for outdoor endurance events.
Related
- Characterisation and modelling of lightning strokes as point events in time and space
- Climate-driven water stress in the United States is seasonal, regional, and shaped by adaptation
- Demonstrating Aeolus capability to observe wind-cloud interactions
- An adaptive energy management and control framework for long-endurance UAV missions in dynamic environments: A reproducible simulation study
- Self-arresting and runaway earthquakes: Nucleation, propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law, and dragon-king events
BibTeX
@article{vandelanotte2026race,
title = {{Too hot to race? Demonstrating heat stress modelling as an adaptation tool for endurance events}},
author = {Kobe Vandelanotte and Bram Du Moulin and Siebe Puynen and Thomas Vergauwen and Sara Top and Steven Caluwaerts},
journal = {PLOS Climate},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0001058},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001058},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Too hot to race? Demonstrating heat stress modelling as an adaptation tool for endurance events
AU - Kobe Vandelanotte
AU - Bram Du Moulin
AU - Siebe Puynen
AU - Thomas Vergauwen
AU - Sara Top
AU - Steven Caluwaerts
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/23
JO - PLOS Climate
DO - 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001058
UR - https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001058
AB - Heat stress is an increasing concern as climate change drives more frequent and intense extreme heat episodes. In particular, participants in outdoor endurance events face a high risk of heat stress related health issues due to prolonged exposure to heat and physical exertion. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely used ISO-standard heat stress index that integrates air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and radiation (both shortwave and longwave) to assess heat stress. Meteorological heat stress metrics such as WBGT can be used to activate heat management plans and to guide or evaluate heat mitigation strategies. To this end, we present a modelling system that combines a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a micro-scale radiation model to simulate meter-scale heat stress. We conducted a mobile measurement campaign to collect spatio-temporal WBGT data along the 2024 Dodentocht, a 100-km ultra-endurance hiking event in Belgium. These observations were used to evaluate the modelling system, which demonstrated a reasonable approximation of the observed WBGT along the route and was able to capture some local shade-induced cooling effects. Finally, we used the modelling system as an adaptation tool to simulate various event-management scenarios, including alternative start times, routes, and walking speeds. For the 2024 Dodentocht, starting 3 hours earlier, at 18:00 local time (UTC + 2), would have reduced the cumulative heat-stress exposure, measured as degree hours above 20∘C WBGT, by 35%. The 2023 route exhibited 16.5% more cumulative degree hours above 20∘C WBGT than the 2024 route for the official 21:00 start time under identical meteorological conditions. Our findings demonstrate the potential of high-resolution heat stress modelling systems as reliable and actionable tools to support the development and implementation of effective heat management strategies for outdoor endurance events.
SN - 2767-3200
ER -