Characterisation and modelling of lightning strokes as point events in time and space
- 1King's College London (London, United Kingdom)
- 2Durham University (Durham, United Kingdom)
Abstract
Lightning is a spatio-temporal phenomenon comprised of individual strokes with specific occurrence times and spatial coordinates. This study models and characterises lightning strokes from single thunderstorms, treating each stroke as a point event. Utilising real-world datasets, we characterise and model lightning strokes' statistical properties. Our analysis involves two severe UK thunderstorm systems selected based on published synoptic analyses. These systems enable subdivision of the lightning dataset into subsets, each representing a distinct thunderstorm. Our two major storm systems feature three thunderstorms each: Storm system A with 7955, 11 988, and 5655 strokes over the English Midlands on 28 June 2012; Storm system B with 4218, 455, and 1926 strokes characterised over northern England on 1–2 July 2015. These six datasets exemplify individual thunderstorms, each characterised by three physical attributes: movement speed, lightning inter-event time distribution, and spatial spread about the storm track. Applying least-squares plane and linear fits in spatio-temporal and lag spaces, we estimate movement speeds of 13–17 m s ⁻¹ for Storm system A and 18–31 m s ⁻¹ for Storm system B. The inter-event time distribution ranges from 0.01 to 100 s, with density peaks around 0.2 and 1–10 s. Autocorrelation analysis in natural time reveals significant autocorrelation across all storms, varying from short-to long-range. For spatial spread, calculated as the distance from the storm track to the strokes, we employ a linear filter to establish the storm track. This analysis yields typical spatial spreads of up to 80 km in either northing or easting dimensions. The paper concludes with a synthetic lightning stroke model. This model allows the selection of each storm's starting points, directions, and movement speeds, generating point events based on our characterisation findings. This comprehensive study of lightning strokes in time and space provides a representative statistical description of severe thunderstorms' behaviour and informs statistical models for simulating lightning events.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{zandovskis2026characterisation,
title = {{Characterisation and modelling of lightning strokes as point events in time and space}},
author = {Uldis Zandovskis and Davide Pigoli and Bruce D. Malamud},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/nhess-26-4997-2026},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/4997/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Characterisation and modelling of lightning strokes as point events in time and space
AU - Uldis Zandovskis
AU - Davide Pigoli
AU - Bruce D. Malamud
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/14
JO - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DO - 10.5194/nhess-26-4997-2026
UR - https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/4997/2026/
AB - Lightning is a spatio-temporal phenomenon comprised of individual strokes with specific occurrence times and spatial coordinates. This study models and characterises lightning strokes from single thunderstorms, treating each stroke as a point event. Utilising real-world datasets, we characterise and model lightning strokes' statistical properties. Our analysis involves two severe UK thunderstorm systems selected based on published synoptic analyses. These systems enable subdivision of the lightning dataset into subsets, each representing a distinct thunderstorm. Our two major storm systems feature three thunderstorms each: Storm system A with 7955, 11 988, and 5655 strokes over the English Midlands on 28 June 2012; Storm system B with 4218, 455, and 1926 strokes characterised over northern England on 1–2 July 2015. These six datasets exemplify individual thunderstorms, each characterised by three physical attributes: movement speed, lightning inter-event time distribution, and spatial spread about the storm track. Applying least-squares plane and linear fits in spatio-temporal and lag spaces, we estimate movement speeds of 13–17 m s ⁻¹ for Storm system A and 18–31 m s ⁻¹ for Storm system B. The inter-event time distribution ranges from 0.01 to 100 s, with density peaks around 0.2 and 1–10 s. Autocorrelation analysis in natural time reveals significant autocorrelation across all storms, varying from short-to long-range. For spatial spread, calculated as the distance from the storm track to the strokes, we employ a linear filter to establish the storm track. This analysis yields typical spatial spreads of up to 80 km in either northing or easting dimensions. The paper concludes with a synthetic lightning stroke model. This model allows the selection of each storm's starting points, directions, and movement speeds, generating point events based on our characterisation findings. This comprehensive study of lightning strokes in time and space provides a representative statistical description of severe thunderstorms' behaviour and informs statistical models for simulating lightning events.
SN - 1684-9981
ER -