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Peer-reviewedCC BYScience

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord

  • Julia E. Cole1
  • D. M. Thompson2
  • Kelsey A. Dyez1
  • Cameron J. Tripp1
  • A. W. Tudhope3
  • Marcus Löfverström2
  • Samantha L. Stevenson4
  • J. M. Okun1
  • A. E. Lawman5
  • J. L. Conroy6
  • Jonathan T. Overpeck7
  • Gloria Jimenez2
1 more authors
  • Richard Lawrence Edwards8
8 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
  2. 2Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
  3. 3School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
  4. 4Bren School of Environmental Sciences and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
  5. 5Environmental Studies and Science Program, Colorado College, Colorado Springs, CO, USA
  6. 6Department of Earth Science and Environmental Change, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
  7. 7School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
  8. 8Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
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Abstract

The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, owing to both data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with that in existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{cole2026recent,
  title = {{Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord}},
  author = {Julia E. Cole and D. M. Thompson and Kelsey A. Dyez and Cameron J. Tripp and A. W. Tudhope and Marcus Löfverström and Samantha L. Stevenson and J. M. Okun and A. E. Lawman and J. L. Conroy and Jonathan T. Overpeck and Gloria Jimenez and Richard Lawrence Edwards},
  journal = {Science},
  year = {2026},
  month = aug,
  doi = {10.1126/science.ady2660},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ady2660},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord
AU  - Julia E. Cole
AU  - D. M. Thompson
AU  - Kelsey A. Dyez
AU  - Cameron J. Tripp
AU  - A. W. Tudhope
AU  - Marcus Löfverström
AU  - Samantha L. Stevenson
AU  - J. M. Okun
AU  - A. E. Lawman
AU  - J. L. Conroy
AU  - Jonathan T. Overpeck
AU  - Gloria Jimenez
AU  - Richard Lawrence Edwards
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/27
JO  - Science
DO  - 10.1126/science.ady2660
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ady2660
AB  - The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, owing to both data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with that in existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.
SN  - 0036-8075
SN  - 0193-4511
SN  - 1095-9203
ER  -