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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Environmental Research Letters

Greenhouse gas forcing dominates the recent strengthening of North Pacific Meridional mode influence on ENSO

  • Yuqiong Zheng1
  • Shangfeng Chen2
  • Bin Yu3
  • Fengfei Song4
  • Jong-Seong Kug5
  • Renguang Wu6
  • Linye Song7
  • Jinling Piao2
  • Zhibiao Wang8
  • Wen Chen1
8 affiliations
  1. 1Yunnan University
  2. 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences
  3. 3Environment Canada
  4. 4Ocean University of China
  5. 5Seoul National University
  6. 6Zhejiang University
  7. 7China Meteorological Administration
  8. 8Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Abstract

The North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) is a key extratropical trigger of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and its influence on ENSO has increased markedly in recent decades, offering a pathway to improve ENSO predictability. Yet, the relative contributions of external forcings versus internal variability to this intensified influence remain uncertain. Using multi-model simulation outputs from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project and a suite of numerical experiments, we demonstrate that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing dominates over internal variability in driving the recent strengthening of the NPMM–ENSO connection, whereas aerosol and natural forcings have minimal impact. GHG forcing enhances the wind–evaporation–SST feedback over the subtropical North Pacific by elevating the background mean SST, which amplifies NPMM-induced westerly wind bursts over the western tropical Pacific and promotes ENSO development. Sensitivity experiments further demonstrate that GHG-induced SST increasing in the subtropical North Pacific enhances the atmospheric response associated with the NPMM. These findings reveal an important role of anthropogenic forcing in modulating the extratropical impact on ENSO and suggest potential opportunities for extending ENSO prediction lead times.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{zheng2026greenhouse,
  title = {{Greenhouse gas forcing dominates the recent strengthening of North Pacific Meridional mode influence on ENSO}},
  author = {Yuqiong Zheng and Shangfeng Chen and Bin Yu and Fengfei Song and Jong-Seong Kug and Renguang Wu and Linye Song and Jinling Piao and Zhibiao Wang and Wen Chen},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4e},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4e},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Greenhouse gas forcing dominates the recent strengthening of North Pacific Meridional mode influence on ENSO
AU  - Yuqiong Zheng
AU  - Shangfeng Chen
AU  - Bin Yu
AU  - Fengfei Song
AU  - Jong-Seong Kug
AU  - Renguang Wu
AU  - Linye Song
AU  - Jinling Piao
AU  - Zhibiao Wang
AU  - Wen Chen
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/05
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4e
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4e
AB  - The North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) is a key extratropical trigger of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and its influence on ENSO has increased markedly in recent decades, offering a pathway to improve ENSO predictability. Yet, the relative contributions of external forcings versus internal variability to this intensified influence remain uncertain. Using multi-model simulation outputs from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project and a suite of numerical experiments, we demonstrate that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing dominates over internal variability in driving the recent strengthening of the NPMM–ENSO connection, whereas aerosol and natural forcings have minimal impact. GHG forcing enhances the wind–evaporation–SST feedback over the subtropical North Pacific by elevating the background mean SST, which amplifies NPMM-induced westerly wind bursts over the western tropical Pacific and promotes ENSO development. Sensitivity experiments further demonstrate that GHG-induced SST increasing in the subtropical North Pacific enhances the atmospheric response associated with the NPMM. These findings reveal an important role of anthropogenic forcing in modulating the extratropical impact on ENSO and suggest potential opportunities for extending ENSO prediction lead times.
SN  - 1748-9326
ER  -