From statements to model input data: Traceability and consistency of qualitative and quantitative scenarios in a participatory foresight exercise
Abstract
In scenario development, many studies aim to clarify how robust and consistent scenarios are constructed, but often rely on methodological descriptions and theoretical frameworks. This paper proposes and illustrates a more transparent process for translating stakeholders' statements into final storylines and model inputs through a participatory foresight exercise designed specifically for this study. It documents the complete translation process, from stakeholders' statements to model-ready inputs, making explicit the successive methodological choices and interpretative steps involved. The analysis is based on a participatory workshop conducted in a polluted agricultural catchment in Alsace, France (115 km²), involving non-mixed panels of stakeholders (i.e., farmers, public officials, water managers, and local authorities). The workshop aimed to co-design desirable scenarios for farming systems and practices in the catchment in 2070 that are less polluting, more resilient to climate change, and adapted to local conditions. Both the workshop and modelling were conducted under frugality constraints (i.e., short sessions, use of existing models and databases) for reasons of reproducibility, emphasizing the substantial effort required to transform stakeholders' inputs into consistent outputs. The participatory nature of the process requires a high level of transparency. This paper details the process of modifying stakeholders' contributions to develop a robust and coherent storyline, and to translate this envisioned future into inputs for conceptual agro-hydrological modelling.
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BibTeX
@article{weidenfeld2026from,
title = {{From statements to model input data: Traceability and consistency of qualitative and quantitative scenarios in a participatory foresight exercise}},
author = {Lou Weidenfeld and Rémi Barbier and Sara Fernandez and Sylvain Payraudeau},
journal = {Futures},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2026.103931},
url = {https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05797835v1},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - From statements to model input data: Traceability and consistency of qualitative and quantitative scenarios in a participatory foresight exercise
AU - Lou Weidenfeld
AU - Rémi Barbier
AU - Sara Fernandez
AU - Sylvain Payraudeau
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/13
JO - Futures
DO - 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103931
UR - https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05797835v1
AB - In scenario development, many studies aim to clarify how robust and consistent scenarios are constructed, but often rely on methodological descriptions and theoretical frameworks. This paper proposes and illustrates a more transparent process for translating stakeholders' statements into final storylines and model inputs through a participatory foresight exercise designed specifically for this study. It documents the complete translation process, from stakeholders' statements to model-ready inputs, making explicit the successive methodological choices and interpretative steps involved. The analysis is based on a participatory workshop conducted in a polluted agricultural catchment in Alsace, France (115 km²), involving non-mixed panels of stakeholders (i.e., farmers, public officials, water managers, and local authorities). The workshop aimed to co-design desirable scenarios for farming systems and practices in the catchment in 2070 that are less polluting, more resilient to climate change, and adapted to local conditions. Both the workshop and modelling were conducted under frugality constraints (i.e., short sessions, use of existing models and databases) for reasons of reproducibility, emphasizing the substantial effort required to transform stakeholders' inputs into consistent outputs. The participatory nature of the process requires a high level of transparency. This paper details the process of modifying stakeholders' contributions to develop a robust and coherent storyline, and to translate this envisioned future into inputs for conceptual agro-hydrological modelling.
SN - 0016-3287
SN - 1873-6378
ER -