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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Environmental Research Letters

Eastward displacement of the Pacific–Japan pattern weakens its influence on summertime tropical cyclones affecting China

  • Yimeng Wang1
  • Jingyun Deng1
  • Peng Hu1,2
  • Yulian Tang3
  • Wen Chen1,2,4
  • Jingliang Huangfu3
  • Ye Zhou1
  • Xinbo Liu1
  • Xiao Teng1
4 affiliations
  1. 1Yunnan University
  2. 2State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction (VegLab)/Yunnan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters and Climate Resources in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Yunnan University
  3. 3Chinese Academy of Sciences
  4. 4Southwest United Graduate School
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting China pose a major threat to coastal populations and economies, yet the large-scale climate controls on these TCs may vary over time. Here, we show that the influence of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern on summertime (June–August) TCs affecting China has weakened markedly since the early-2000s. During 1979–2002, positive PJ phases were associated with significantly more TCs affecting China than negative phases, whereas this contrast largely disappeared during 2003–2025. This weakening primarily resulted from an eastward displacement of the PJ pattern and the associated circulation anomalies during summer. Before the early-2000s, the positive PJ phase enhanced TC genesis over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea, accompanied by easterly steering flow that favored westward propagation toward China. After the early-2000s, the PJ-related TC genesis enhancement became concentrated farther east over the western North Pacific, substantially weakening the PJ modulation of TCs in regions closer to China. Meanwhile, the PJ-related steering flow became less favorable for westward TC propagation toward China. These findings demonstrate that interdecadal shifts in the spatial structure of climate modes can fundamentally alter established climate–hazard relationships and reshape regional TC risk.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{wang2026eastward,
  title = {{Eastward displacement of the Pacific–Japan pattern weakens its influence on summertime tropical cyclones affecting China}},
  author = {Yimeng Wang and Jingyun Deng and Peng Hu and Yulian Tang and Wen Chen and Jingliang Huangfu and Ye Zhou and Xinbo Liu and Xiao Teng},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55c},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55c},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Eastward displacement of the Pacific–Japan pattern weakens its influence on summertime tropical cyclones affecting China
AU  - Yimeng Wang
AU  - Jingyun Deng
AU  - Peng Hu
AU  - Yulian Tang
AU  - Wen Chen
AU  - Jingliang Huangfu
AU  - Ye Zhou
AU  - Xinbo Liu
AU  - Xiao Teng
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/27
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55c
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55c
AB  - Tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting China pose a major threat to coastal populations and economies, yet the large-scale climate controls on these TCs may vary over time. Here, we show that the influence of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern on summertime (June–August) TCs affecting China has weakened markedly since the early-2000s. During 1979–2002, positive PJ phases were associated with significantly more TCs affecting China than negative phases, whereas this contrast largely disappeared during 2003–2025. This weakening primarily resulted from an eastward displacement of the PJ pattern and the associated circulation anomalies during summer. Before the early-2000s, the positive PJ phase enhanced TC genesis over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea, accompanied by easterly steering flow that favored westward propagation toward China. After the early-2000s, the PJ-related TC genesis enhancement became concentrated farther east over the western North Pacific, substantially weakening the PJ modulation of TCs in regions closer to China. Meanwhile, the PJ-related steering flow became less favorable for westward TC propagation toward China. These findings demonstrate that interdecadal shifts in the spatial structure of climate modes can fundamentally alter established climate–hazard relationships and reshape regional TC risk.
SN  - 1748-9326
ER  -