A MaxEnt–Based Assessment of Climate–Suitable Habitat for the Rare Orchid Cymbidium insigne in Hainan Under Climate Change
- 1Key Laboratory of Genetics and Germplasm Innovation of Tropical Special Forest Trees and Ornamental Plants (Ministry of Education), School of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry, Hainan University, Danzhou 571700, China
- 2State Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
Abstract
Cymbidium insigne is a tropical rare orchid and a Grade I protected wild plant in China, highly sensitive to understory microclimate. Based on 9 occurrence records from Hainan Island and 9 core environmental variables, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with leave–one–out cross–validation to predict its current and future suitable habitats across four 20–year periods (2021–2040s, 2041–2060s, 2061–2080s, 2081–2100s) under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The model showed high apparent discrimination under leave–one–out cross–validation, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.99; however, given only nine presence–only occurrence records, all quantitative predictions should be interpreted with caution. Elevation was the dominant factor, contributing 82%, followed by the wettest–quarter mean temperature of 8.6% and annual temperature range of 8.0%. Current suitable area totaled 2054 km², with high suitable areas concentrated in mid–to–high elevation valleys at the junction of Wuzhishan, Baoting, Qiongzhong, Ledong, and Baisha. Suitable habitat shrank significantly under all future scenarios by 2081–2100s: only about 48% (983 km²), 1% (24 km²), and none (0 km²) of the present 2054 km² were projected to remain under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Climate warming is projected to cause substantial loss of suitable habitat for C. insigne. We recommend constructing conservation corridors within Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park, centered on stable central–mountain core zones, combined with ex–situ conservation and microclimate monitoring for adaptive management.
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BibTeX
@article{sha2026maxentbased,
title = {{A MaxEnt–Based Assessment of Climate–Suitable Habitat for the Rare Orchid Cymbidium insigne in Hainan Under Climate Change}},
author = {Chuantao Sha and Zhiheng Chen and Xiqiang Song and Yuanjun Yu and Zhe Zhang},
journal = {Diversity},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.3390/d18100586},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/d18100586},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A MaxEnt–Based Assessment of Climate–Suitable Habitat for the Rare Orchid Cymbidium insigne in Hainan Under Climate Change
AU - Chuantao Sha
AU - Zhiheng Chen
AU - Xiqiang Song
AU - Yuanjun Yu
AU - Zhe Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/01
JO - Diversity
DO - 10.3390/d18100586
UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/d18100586
AB - Cymbidium insigne is a tropical rare orchid and a Grade I protected wild plant in China, highly sensitive to understory microclimate. Based on 9 occurrence records from Hainan Island and 9 core environmental variables, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with leave–one–out cross–validation to predict its current and future suitable habitats across four 20–year periods (2021–2040s, 2041–2060s, 2061–2080s, 2081–2100s) under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The model showed high apparent discrimination under leave–one–out cross–validation, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.99; however, given only nine presence–only occurrence records, all quantitative predictions should be interpreted with caution. Elevation was the dominant factor, contributing 82%, followed by the wettest–quarter mean temperature of 8.6% and annual temperature range of 8.0%. Current suitable area totaled 2054 km², with high suitable areas concentrated in mid–to–high elevation valleys at the junction of Wuzhishan, Baoting, Qiongzhong, Ledong, and Baisha. Suitable habitat shrank significantly under all future scenarios by 2081–2100s: only about 48% (983 km²), 1% (24 km²), and none (0 km²) of the present 2054 km² were projected to remain under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Climate warming is projected to cause substantial loss of suitable habitat for C. insigne. We recommend constructing conservation corridors within Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park, centered on stable central–mountain core zones, combined with ex–situ conservation and microclimate monitoring for adaptive management.
SN - 1424-2818
ER -