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Peer-reviewedCC BYRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

Modeling Exposure-Mortality Relationships for Indoor Heat.

  • Andrew Ibbetson1
  • Charles Simpson1
  • Giorgos Petrou1
  • Eleni Oikonomou1
  • Anna Mavrogianni1
  • Rajat Gupta2
  • Mike Davies1
  • Ai Milojevic3
  1. 1Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.
  2. 2Low Carbon Building Research Group, School of Architecture, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK.
  3. 3Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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Abstract

Most individuals spend the majority of their time indoors. However, epidemiological evidence of the association between heat and mortality is dominated by studies using outdoor temperature as a proxy for personal exposure. To demonstrate how an exposure-response relationship between indoor heat and mortality may relate to that between outdoor heat and mortality, we develop a novel mathematical modeling approach. This approachuses the relationship between regional daily average indoor and outdoor temperature to map the exposure-response relationship for outdoor heat, estimated by epidemiological studies, to indoor heat. Due to the modifying effect of buildings on heat exposure, we show that a change in indoor temperature may be associated with a greater change in mortality than an equal change in outdoor temperature. This has implications for researchers seeking to assess the health impact of changes in indoor heat exposure. Furthermore, it provides a new theoretical framework for interpreting potential differences in the temperature-mortality relationship of indoor and outdoor heat exposure in epidemiological studies.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{ibbetson2026modeling,
  title = {{Modeling Exposure-Mortality Relationships for Indoor Heat.}},
  author = {Andrew Ibbetson and Charles Simpson and Giorgos Petrou and Eleni Oikonomou and Anna Mavrogianni and Rajat Gupta and Mike Davies and Ai Milojevic},
  journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1111/risa.70395},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42904486},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Modeling Exposure-Mortality Relationships for Indoor Heat.
AU  - Andrew Ibbetson
AU  - Charles Simpson
AU  - Giorgos Petrou
AU  - Eleni Oikonomou
AU  - Anna Mavrogianni
AU  - Rajat Gupta
AU  - Mike Davies
AU  - Ai Milojevic
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/30
JO  - Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
DO  - 10.1111/risa.70395
UR  - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42904486
AB  - Most individuals spend the majority of their time indoors. However, epidemiological evidence of the association between heat and mortality is dominated by studies using outdoor temperature as a proxy for personal exposure. To demonstrate how an exposure-response relationship between indoor heat and mortality may relate to that between outdoor heat and mortality, we develop a novel mathematical modeling approach. This approachuses the relationship between regional daily average indoor and outdoor temperature to map the exposure-response relationship for outdoor heat, estimated by epidemiological studies, to indoor heat. Due to the modifying effect of buildings on heat exposure, we show that a change in indoor temperature may be associated with a greater change in mortality than an equal change in outdoor temperature. This has implications for researchers seeking to assess the health impact of changes in indoor heat exposure. Furthermore, it provides a new theoretical framework for interpreting potential differences in the temperature-mortality relationship of indoor and outdoor heat exposure in epidemiological studies.
SN  - 0272-4332
SN  - 1539-6924
ER  -