Skip to content
DraconiticResearch
Search Sources API
201,818 studies31 sourcesUpdated 31 min ago
Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Science Advances

Persistent bistability of Nordic Seas overflow waters over 800,000 years

  • Nathan Stevenard1,2,3
  • Aline Govin1
  • Catherine Kissel1
  • Didier Swingedouw4
  • Samuel Toucanne5
  • Nathaëlle Bouttes1
5 affiliations
  1. 1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  2. 2Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, IGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, Saint-Martin d’Hères, France.
  3. 3Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
  4. 4Université de Bordeaux EPOC, UMR 5805, Pessac, France.
  5. 5Geo-Ocean, Université de Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, UMR 6538, Plouzané, France.
Read full textDOICite

Abstract

The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major uncertainty in projections of future climate. However, direct evidence for AMOC tipping behavior on orbital timescales remains scarce. Here, we reconstruct the strength of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, a key lower branch of the deep Atlantic circulation, over the past 800,000 years by combining 12 current-speed records from North Atlantic sediment cores with a data-driven hybrid model. The resulting reconstruction reveals persistent alternation between weak (glacial) and strong (interglacial) circulation modes, pervasive millennial-scale variability within both regimes, and systematic asymmetry between weak-to-strong recoveries and strong-to-weak collapses. Threshold and phase-space analyses show that regime shifts occur within a narrow window of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea level and often follow hysteresis-like loops. Although bistability persists throughout the last 800,000 years, its sensitivity and timing evolve through time. These findings provide long-term, high-resolution, data-driven constraints on the bistability of Nordic Seas overflow waters and its implications for AMOC resilience in a warming world.

Related

  1. Transformation of overflow water in the East Greenland Current mediated through lateral processes
    Thorbjørn Østenby Moe, Kjersti Daae, Tore Hattermann +4
    EGUspherePreprintCC BY 4.0General earth scienceEGUsphere
  2. Reconciling carbon sequestration with nitrogen budgets in Nordic forests
    Filip Moldan, Sara Jutterström, Johanna Stadmark +5
    Environmental Research LettersPeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Full textHydrology & soilsIOP/AASCrossref
  3. Stochastic cloud fluctuations drive Arctic winter radiative bistability
    Jung-Sub Lim, Graham Feingold
    Science AdvancesPeer-reviewedCC BYClimate scienceCrossref
  4. Arctic bimodality reflects enhanced variability in the clear-cloudy transition rather than bistability
    Nadja Omanovic, J. Antoon van Hooft, Valentina Zeni +1
    arXivPreprintCC BY 4.0Full textAtmospheric science & meteorologyarXiv
  5. Bistability of ice-shelf cavity circulation and melt under coastal polynya forcing
    Louis Saddier, Corentin Herbert, Christopher Y. S. Bull +1
    HALPreprintCC BY 4.0Full textAtmospheric science & meteorologyOceanography & cryosphereHALarXiv

Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{stevenard2026persistent,
  title = {{Persistent bistability of Nordic Seas overflow waters over 800,000 years}},
  author = {Nathan Stevenard and Aline Govin and Catherine Kissel and Didier Swingedouw and Samuel Toucanne and Nathaëlle Bouttes},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aee7886},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.aee7886},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Persistent bistability of Nordic Seas overflow waters over 800,000 years
AU  - Nathan Stevenard
AU  - Aline Govin
AU  - Catherine Kissel
AU  - Didier Swingedouw
AU  - Samuel Toucanne
AU  - Nathaëlle Bouttes
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/04
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aee7886
UR  - https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.aee7886
AB  - The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major uncertainty in projections of future climate. However, direct evidence for AMOC tipping behavior on orbital timescales remains scarce. Here, we reconstruct the strength of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, a key lower branch of the deep Atlantic circulation, over the past 800,000 years by combining 12 current-speed records from North Atlantic sediment cores with a data-driven hybrid model. The resulting reconstruction reveals persistent alternation between weak (glacial) and strong (interglacial) circulation modes, pervasive millennial-scale variability within both regimes, and systematic asymmetry between weak-to-strong recoveries and strong-to-weak collapses. Threshold and phase-space analyses show that regime shifts occur within a narrow window of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea level and often follow hysteresis-like loops. Although bistability persists throughout the last 800,000 years, its sensitivity and timing evolve through time. These findings provide long-term, high-resolution, data-driven constraints on the bistability of Nordic Seas overflow waters and its implications for AMOC resilience in a warming world.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -