Arctic bimodality reflects enhanced variability in the clear-cloudy transition rather than bistability
Abstract
The wintertime Arctic boundary layer is characterized by two distinct states, radiatively clear (cloud-free) and radiatively opaque (cloudy), which is reflected in observations as a bimodal distribution. Previous studies hypothesized that these regimes are related to an underlying bistability of the system's dynamics. We apply a drift-diffusion framework based on the two leading terms of the Kramers-Moyal expansion to observations from 15 winter periods in Ny-Alesund, Norway. Our model captures the bimodality; we find a single stable point for the deterministic drift, however, which questions the existence of bistable deterministic dynamics. Instead, the observed regimes can be attributed to state-dependent stochastic fluctuations with maximum amplitude close to the clear-cloudy transition. The position of the stable point depends on the meteorological conditions. Controlling for synoptic variability does not remove the state-dependence of diffusion, however. The cloudy regime is associated with southwesterly winds, high specific humidities, and uplifting motion, the latter two being conducive for cloud formation, while the cloud-free regime occurs under drier conditions and northeasterly winds. Through an illustrative example, we suggest a possible process-based interpretation of our statistical analysis. The nonlinear onset of cloud formation, once atmospheric humidity reaches saturation, could map state-independent fluctuations in humidity to state-dependent fluctuations in cloudiness.
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BibTeX
@misc{omanovic2026arctic,
title = {{Arctic bimodality reflects enhanced variability in the clear-cloudy transition rather than bistability}},
author = {Nadja Omanovic and J. Antoon van Hooft and Valentina Zeni and Franziska Glassmeier},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.02205},
eprint = {2608.02205},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.02205},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Arctic bimodality reflects enhanced variability in the clear-cloudy transition rather than bistability
AU - Nadja Omanovic
AU - J. Antoon van Hooft
AU - Valentina Zeni
AU - Franziska Glassmeier
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/20
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.02205
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.02205
AB - The wintertime Arctic boundary layer is characterized by two distinct states, radiatively clear (cloud-free) and radiatively opaque (cloudy), which is reflected in observations as a bimodal distribution. Previous studies hypothesized that these regimes are related to an underlying bistability of the system's dynamics. We apply a drift-diffusion framework based on the two leading terms of the Kramers-Moyal expansion to observations from 15 winter periods in Ny-Alesund, Norway. Our model captures the bimodality; we find a single stable point for the deterministic drift, however, which questions the existence of bistable deterministic dynamics. Instead, the observed regimes can be attributed to state-dependent stochastic fluctuations with maximum amplitude close to the clear-cloudy transition. The position of the stable point depends on the meteorological conditions. Controlling for synoptic variability does not remove the state-dependence of diffusion, however. The cloudy regime is associated with southwesterly winds, high specific humidities, and uplifting motion, the latter two being conducive for cloud formation, while the cloud-free regime occurs under drier conditions and northeasterly winds. Through an illustrative example, we suggest a possible process-based interpretation of our statistical analysis. The nonlinear onset of cloud formation, once atmospheric humidity reaches saturation, could map state-independent fluctuations in humidity to state-dependent fluctuations in cloudiness.
ER -