Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting
6 affiliations
- 1Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan, Milan 20122, Italy
- 2Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg 90748, Germany
- 3International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Population and Just Societies, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
- 4Department of Statistical Sciences “Paolo Fortunati”, University of Bologna, Bologna 40126, Italy
- 5Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan 20136, Italy
- 6Yale-NUS, Singapore 138527, Singapore
Abstract
In the past decade, the public in Europe has become more concerned about climate change and expresses stronger proenvironmental policy preferences. Based on data from the European Social Survey (2012–2022, 25 countries), we show that the increased exposure to temperature extremes has contributed to the observed changes in climate change attitudes and electoral support for environmentalist policy platforms. For each additional degree of excess temperature experienced during warm spells measured over the previous 12 mo, we find that the probabilities of being worried about climate change, of feeling responsible for climate change, and of voting for Green parties and Green coalitions increase by 4.0 [CI95: 2.5, 5.5], 2.5 [CI95: 1.1, 3.9], and 2.8 [CI95: 0.9, 3.7] percentage points respectively. We also document significant heterogeneity across individuals, based on gender and education, particularly between highly educated women and low-educated men. While the latter group consistently exhibits the lowest proenvironmental attitudes and voting, it is this group that shows the strongest increases when exposed to temperature extremes, converging toward the levels of their more educated counterparts. Further regional heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effects of warm temperature extremes are smaller in less prosperous or economically disadvantaged regions, as well as in regions with greenhouse gas emission levels above the median. The findings suggest a nuanced interplay between individual factors and contextual influences in shaping climate attitudes of European citizens and their motivations or reservations toward greater climate action.
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BibTeX
@article{bassetto2026heterogeneous,
title = {{Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting}},
author = {Jacopo Bassetto and Roman Hoffmann and Raya Muttarak and Jonas Peisker and Piero Stanig},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2321153122},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321153122},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting
AU - Jacopo Bassetto
AU - Roman Hoffmann
AU - Raya Muttarak
AU - Jonas Peisker
AU - Piero Stanig
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2321153122
UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321153122
AB - In the past decade, the public in Europe has become more concerned about climate change and expresses stronger proenvironmental policy preferences. Based on data from the European Social Survey (2012–2022, 25 countries), we show that the increased exposure to temperature extremes has contributed to the observed changes in climate change attitudes and electoral support for environmentalist policy platforms. For each additional degree of excess temperature experienced during warm spells measured over the previous 12 mo, we find that the probabilities of being worried about climate change, of feeling responsible for climate change, and of voting for Green parties and Green coalitions increase by 4.0 [CI95: 2.5, 5.5], 2.5 [CI95: 1.1, 3.9], and 2.8 [CI95: 0.9, 3.7] percentage points respectively. We also document significant heterogeneity across individuals, based on gender and education, particularly between highly educated women and low-educated men. While the latter group consistently exhibits the lowest proenvironmental attitudes and voting, it is this group that shows the strongest increases when exposed to temperature extremes, converging toward the levels of their more educated counterparts. Further regional heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effects of warm temperature extremes are smaller in less prosperous or economically disadvantaged regions, as well as in regions with greenhouse gas emission levels above the median. The findings suggest a nuanced interplay between individual factors and contextual influences in shaping climate attitudes of European citizens and their motivations or reservations toward greater climate action.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -