Propagating shocks and transitions across networked food systems: Insights from multiplayer microeconomic modeling
7 affiliations
- 1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
- 2Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC 20016
- 3Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- 4Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740
- 5Operations Management, Indian School of Business, Mohali 140306, India
- 6National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352
- 7Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
Abstract
Accelerating global change is affecting coupled natural ecosystems and human activities in every part of the world. The local and regional expressions of these changes are a product of interacting and networked systems such that a shock, trend or development transition in one region, ecosystem, or sector can propagate impacts to other regions, ecosystems, and sectors. Informed adaptation and development strategies require an understanding of how signals propagate through these coupled systems and regions. Here, we synthesize findings from our work in Ethiopia and Mali, where we developed and applied a modeling system designed to capture cross-sector dynamics of networked food, water, and energy systems at subnational scale. We approach the problem using a multiplayer microeconomic model that accounts for diverse objectives through chains of food production, distribution, and consumption that connect resource regions to market regions. This paper draws lessons from three case studies in Ethiopia and one in Mali that are designed to examine impacts of a subnational climate shock (drought), a centralized national policy decision (export restrictions in response to food shortage), a distributed development strategy (solar-powered groundwater irrigation), and an external intervention (food aid). In each case, we consider how an initial signal propagates through the country via markets, infrastructure, and interactions between economic actors. An understanding of this propagation can inform strategies for food security in a changing climate.
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BibTeX
@article{zaitchik2026propagating,
title = {{Propagating shocks and transitions across networked food systems: Insights from multiplayer microeconomic modeling}},
author = {Benjamin F. Zaitchik and Sauleh Siddiqui and Belay Simane and Ying Zhang and Sriram Sankaranarayanan and Craig Bakker and Steven Witkin},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2321155123},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321155123},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Propagating shocks and transitions across networked food systems: Insights from multiplayer microeconomic modeling
AU - Benjamin F. Zaitchik
AU - Sauleh Siddiqui
AU - Belay Simane
AU - Ying Zhang
AU - Sriram Sankaranarayanan
AU - Craig Bakker
AU - Steven Witkin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2321155123
UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321155123
AB - Accelerating global change is affecting coupled natural ecosystems and human activities in every part of the world. The local and regional expressions of these changes are a product of interacting and networked systems such that a shock, trend or development transition in one region, ecosystem, or sector can propagate impacts to other regions, ecosystems, and sectors. Informed adaptation and development strategies require an understanding of how signals propagate through these coupled systems and regions. Here, we synthesize findings from our work in Ethiopia and Mali, where we developed and applied a modeling system designed to capture cross-sector dynamics of networked food, water, and energy systems at subnational scale. We approach the problem using a multiplayer microeconomic model that accounts for diverse objectives through chains of food production, distribution, and consumption that connect resource regions to market regions. This paper draws lessons from three case studies in Ethiopia and one in Mali that are designed to examine impacts of a subnational climate shock (drought), a centralized national policy decision (export restrictions in response to food shortage), a distributed development strategy (solar-powered groundwater irrigation), and an external intervention (food aid). In each case, we consider how an initial signal propagates through the country via markets, infrastructure, and interactions between economic actors. An understanding of this propagation can inform strategies for food security in a changing climate.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -