Dissecting the drivers of national terrestrial water storage alterations using non-parametric ensemble learning: The case of Iran
- 1Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
- 2Correspondence to: 425 Civil Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., P.O. Box, Tehran 11155-9313, Iran
Abstract
Study region: Iran faces water bankruptcy driven by decades of overuse and mismanagement, threatening both its population and ecosystems. Study focus: This study quantifies long-term terrestrial water storage loss (TWSL) dynamics across Iran by integrating GRACE satellite observations, extensive ground-based hydroclimatic records, and an explainable Random Forest model enhanced with Nataf-based data augmentation. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the relative contributions of climatic variability and anthropogenic forcing. New hydrological insights for the region: Results show pronounced hydroclimatic change between 1973 and 2023, indicating a significant increase of 2.05°C in air temperature and a 43 mm reduction in average annual precipitation between 1973–2000 and 2001–2019. The average annual streamflow at unregulated stations decreased by 37% during 1998–2018 relative to 1970–1997. Groundwater storage deficit over 2003–2018 was 83 BCM. GRACE data indicate a TWSL of about 370 BCM from 2002 to 2023, with 61% occurring after 2016, reflecting accelerating depletion. SHAP analysis revealed that groundwater dynamics dominate TWSL, explaining 90.5%, 91.9%, and 92.3% of its variability during normal, dry, and wet conditions, respectively, whereas the influence of other factors remains limited under all climatic conditions. This dominance indicates a decoupling of TWSL from short-term climate variability and a transition toward groundwater-controlled storage dynamics. These findings highlight the need for demand management and effective control of groundwater abstraction from aquifers to ensure long-term sustainability.
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BibTeX
@article{shakeri2026dissecting,
title = {{Dissecting the drivers of national terrestrial water storage alterations using non-parametric ensemble learning: The case of Iran}},
author = {Fereshteh Shakeri and Amirhossein Haddadi and Mohammad Danesh-Yazdi},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104131},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104131},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Dissecting the drivers of national terrestrial water storage alterations using non-parametric ensemble learning: The case of Iran
AU - Fereshteh Shakeri
AU - Amirhossein Haddadi
AU - Mohammad Danesh-Yazdi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
DO - 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104131
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104131
AB - Study region: Iran faces water bankruptcy driven by decades of overuse and mismanagement, threatening both its population and ecosystems. Study focus: This study quantifies long-term terrestrial water storage loss (TWSL) dynamics across Iran by integrating GRACE satellite observations, extensive ground-based hydroclimatic records, and an explainable Random Forest model enhanced with Nataf-based data augmentation. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the relative contributions of climatic variability and anthropogenic forcing. New hydrological insights for the region: Results show pronounced hydroclimatic change between 1973 and 2023, indicating a significant increase of 2.05°C in air temperature and a 43 mm reduction in average annual precipitation between 1973–2000 and 2001–2019. The average annual streamflow at unregulated stations decreased by 37% during 1998–2018 relative to 1970–1997. Groundwater storage deficit over 2003–2018 was 83 BCM. GRACE data indicate a TWSL of about 370 BCM from 2002 to 2023, with 61% occurring after 2016, reflecting accelerating depletion. SHAP analysis revealed that groundwater dynamics dominate TWSL, explaining 90.5%, 91.9%, and 92.3% of its variability during normal, dry, and wet conditions, respectively, whereas the influence of other factors remains limited under all climatic conditions. This dominance indicates a decoupling of TWSL from short-term climate variability and a transition toward groundwater-controlled storage dynamics. These findings highlight the need for demand management and effective control of groundwater abstraction from aquifers to ensure long-term sustainability.
SN - 2214-5818
ER -