More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage
6 affiliations
- 1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. [email protected]
- 2Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA. [email protected]
- 3Neukom Institute for Computational Science, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA. [email protected]
- 4Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
- 5Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
- 6Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Abstract
Terrestrial water availability is a key determinant of human and ecosystem well-being. Aside from mean precipitation and evaporation changes, it is unknown how daily-scale precipitation intensification and consolidation impact hydrologic partitioning and the land water balance. Using satellite-derived terrestrial water storage estimates and multiple observational precipitation datasets, we provide the first observational evidence that precipitation consolidation decreases land water availability as strongly as total precipitation enhances it across all climates globally. A transparent land surface model recovers the observed effect and reveals that it arises from enhanced evaporation due to changes in hydrologic partitioning at the land surface. Projected impacts of warming-driven rainfall consolidation at ~2°C of warming shift the land surface to abnormally dry conditions for half the global population, independent of any total precipitation changes. Our results update understanding of the determinants of the land water balance, highlighting its sensitivity to the temporal character of precipitation, with implications for water availability.
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BibTeX
@article{lesk2026more,
title = {{More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage}},
author = {Corey S. Lesk and Justin Mankin},
journal = {Nature},
year = {2026},
month = may,
doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-10487-7},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10487-7},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage
AU - Corey S. Lesk
AU - Justin Mankin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/13
JO - Nature
DO - 10.1038/s41586-026-10487-7
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10487-7
AB - Terrestrial water availability is a key determinant of human and ecosystem well-being. Aside from mean precipitation and evaporation changes, it is unknown how daily-scale precipitation intensification and consolidation impact hydrologic partitioning and the land water balance. Using satellite-derived terrestrial water storage estimates and multiple observational precipitation datasets, we provide the first observational evidence that precipitation consolidation decreases land water availability as strongly as total precipitation enhances it across all climates globally. A transparent land surface model recovers the observed effect and reveals that it arises from enhanced evaporation due to changes in hydrologic partitioning at the land surface. Projected impacts of warming-driven rainfall consolidation at ~2°C of warming shift the land surface to abnormally dry conditions for half the global population, independent of any total precipitation changes. Our results update understanding of the determinants of the land water balance, highlighting its sensitivity to the temporal character of precipitation, with implications for water availability.
SN - 0028-0836
SN - 1476-4687
ER -