Short-term effects of ambient PM₂.₅ exposure on cardiovascular mortality in Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 1Salidat Kairbekova National Scientific Research Center for Health Development, Ministry of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan
- 2Farabi Kazakh National University
Abstract
Background: Ambient fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is an established environmental risk factor for cardiovascular disease, yet evidence regarding its short-term effects on cardiovascular mortality remains limited in Central Asia. This study investigated the short-term association between PM₂.₅ exposure and cardiovascular mortality in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective ecological time-series study using daily cardiovascular mortality and environmental data collected between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2025 (3,287 days). Distributed lag nonlinear models within a generalized additive model framework with a quasi-Poisson distribution were used to estimate lag-specific (0–7 days) and cumulative associations between daily PM₂.₅ concentrations and cardiovascular mortality while adjusting for long-term trends, day of the week, and nonlinear temperature effects. Stratified analyses were performed by age and sex.
Results: During the study period, 43,095 cardiovascular deaths were recorded. The mean daily PM₂.₅ concentration was 36.9 ± 33.3 μg/m ³ . Neither lag-specific nor cumulative associations between PM₂.₅ exposure and cardiovascular mortality reached statistical significance. Relative risk estimates increased after exposure, peaking approximately 2–4 days later before declining. The cumulative relative risk for the overall population was 1.011 (95% CI, 0.837–1.222). Adults aged ≥65 years exhibited the highest cumulative relative risk estimate (RR 1.174, 95% CI, 0.926–1.489), although all subgroup confidence intervals included the null value.
Conclusion: Short-term PM₂.₅ exposure was not significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality in Almaty; however, the observed delayed temporal pattern was biologically plausible and suggested greater susceptibility among older adults.
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BibTeX
@article{kulkayeva2026shortterm,
title = {{Short-term effects of ambient PM₂.₅ exposure on cardiovascular mortality in Almaty, Kazakhstan}},
author = {Gulnara Kulkayeva and Gulnara Kapanova and Maksat Mamyrkul and Lyazzat Kosherbayeva and Riza Yessergeneva},
journal = {Frontiers in Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2026.1950463},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1950463/full},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Short-term effects of ambient PM₂.₅ exposure on cardiovascular mortality in Almaty, Kazakhstan
AU - Gulnara Kulkayeva
AU - Gulnara Kapanova
AU - Maksat Mamyrkul
AU - Lyazzat Kosherbayeva
AU - Riza Yessergeneva
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1950463
UR - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1950463/full
AB - Background: Ambient fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is an established environmental risk factor for cardiovascular disease, yet evidence regarding its short-term effects on cardiovascular mortality remains limited in Central Asia. This study investigated the short-term association between PM₂.₅ exposure and cardiovascular mortality in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Methods: We conducted a retrospective ecological time-series study using daily cardiovascular mortality and environmental data collected between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2025 (3,287 days). Distributed lag nonlinear models within a generalized additive model framework with a quasi-Poisson distribution were used to estimate lag-specific (0–7 days) and cumulative associations between daily PM₂.₅ concentrations and cardiovascular mortality while adjusting for long-term trends, day of the week, and nonlinear temperature effects. Stratified analyses were performed by age and sex. Results: During the study period, 43,095 cardiovascular deaths were recorded. The mean daily PM₂.₅ concentration was 36.9 ± 33.3 μg/m ³ . Neither lag-specific nor cumulative associations between PM₂.₅ exposure and cardiovascular mortality reached statistical significance. Relative risk estimates increased after exposure, peaking approximately 2–4 days later before declining. The cumulative relative risk for the overall population was 1.011 (95% CI, 0.837–1.222). Adults aged ≥65 years exhibited the highest cumulative relative risk estimate (RR 1.174, 95% CI, 0.926–1.489), although all subgroup confidence intervals included the null value. Conclusion: Short-term PM₂.₅ exposure was not significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality in Almaty; however, the observed delayed temporal pattern was biologically plausible and suggested greater susceptibility among older adults.
SN - 2296-2565
ER -