A Geospatial informed Conservation Strategy for Sustainable Management of Dalbergia sissoo (Roxb.) Population in India amidst Climate Change and Pathogen Induced Mortality Stress
Abstract
The natural population of Dalbergia sissoo, is declining due to biotic and abiotic stressors. Existing studies focus on pathogen-induced mortality in D. sissoo, but the impact of climate on habitat loss and population decline is limited. This study fills this gap by integrating climate change impacts and pathogen outbreaks to assess their combined influence on the distribution and survival of D. sissoo. Field assessments identified Neofusicoccum solani and Ganoderma lucidum as the predominant pathogens contributing to widespread mortality. Using MaxEnt, we evaluated habitat suitability across the Indian subcontinent under climate models IPSL-6A_LR and MIROC6A proxied through Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP-126, 245, 370, 585. Presently, ~ 19% of the study area was found suitable for D. sissoo distribution, primarily concentrated in northern and eastern India. However, depending upon the climate scenario, projections for 2050 suggest a substantial reduction in habitat, limiting the current suitable range to ~5–16%, with a northward shift. Among bioclimatic variables, Bio_9 (mean temperature of driest quarter) contributed most to limiting the distribution of D. sissoo. We recommend a collaborative approach to assess pathogen risk and climate resilience into restoration planning and advocates for a combined in-situ and ex-situ conservation and sustainable management of D. sissoo population.
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BibTeX
@misc{singh2026geospatial,
title = {{A Geospatial informed Conservation Strategy for Sustainable Management of Dalbergia sissoo (Roxb.) Population in India amidst Climate Change and Pathogen Induced Mortality Stress}},
author = {Ronak Singh and Sonu Choudhary and Jassi Sharma and Sk Mujibar Rahaman and Shibnarayan Pratihar and V Rathna and Basant Kumar and shailesh Pandey and Ashwani Tapwal and R K Meena and Ajay Thakur and Rajesh Kumar and Sangeeta Singh and Aviral Asaiyya and Amit Pandey and sharad tiwari},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.32942/x2t384},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15156/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Geospatial informed Conservation Strategy for Sustainable Management of Dalbergia sissoo (Roxb.) Population in India amidst Climate Change and Pathogen Induced Mortality Stress
AU - Ronak Singh
AU - Sonu Choudhary
AU - Jassi Sharma
AU - Sk Mujibar Rahaman
AU - Shibnarayan Pratihar
AU - V Rathna
AU - Basant Kumar
AU - shailesh Pandey
AU - Ashwani Tapwal
AU - R K Meena
AU - Ajay Thakur
AU - Rajesh Kumar
AU - Sangeeta Singh
AU - Aviral Asaiyya
AU - Amit Pandey
AU - sharad tiwari
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/23
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.32942/x2t384
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15156/
AB - The natural population of Dalbergia sissoo, is declining due to biotic and abiotic stressors. Existing studies focus on pathogen-induced mortality in D. sissoo, but the impact of climate on habitat loss and population decline is limited. This study fills this gap by integrating climate change impacts and pathogen outbreaks to assess their combined influence on the distribution and survival of D. sissoo. Field assessments identified Neofusicoccum solani and Ganoderma lucidum as the predominant pathogens contributing to widespread mortality. Using MaxEnt, we evaluated habitat suitability across the Indian subcontinent under climate models IPSL-6A_LR and MIROC6A proxied through Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP-126, 245, 370, 585. Presently, ~ 19% of the study area was found suitable for D. sissoo distribution, primarily concentrated in northern and eastern India. However, depending upon the climate scenario, projections for 2050 suggest a substantial reduction in habitat, limiting the current suitable range to ~5–16%, with a northward shift. Among bioclimatic variables, Bio_9 (mean temperature of driest quarter) contributed most to limiting the distribution of D. sissoo. We recommend a collaborative approach to assess pathogen risk and climate resilience into restoration planning and advocates for a combined in-situ and ex-situ conservation and sustainable management of D. sissoo population.
ER -