Climate change amplified wind-related economic losses during Cyclone Harry (2026)
Abstract
Cyclone Harry affected Sicily, Calabria and Sardinia between 19 and 22 January 2026, producing heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal impacts across the central Mediterranean. We assess how the associated meteorological conditions differ between the present climate (1988--2025) and a cooler past (1950--1987) using the multivariate ClimaMeter analogue attribution protocol applied to ERA5 reanalysis. The circulation changes indicate a deepening of the sea level pressure minimum over the cyclone core, while the 500 hPa geopotential height field exhibits positive anomalies over the eastern part of the domain. However, the magnitude of both anomalies remains small compared with the anomalies associated with the event itself. In contrast, surface signals are more robust. Near surface temperature is about 1 to 2°C over the whole domain, and wind speeds increase by about 4 to 6~km/h over the Ionian sector and Sicily. Precipitation changes remain spatially heterogeneous and less robust. Internal variability appears to play a negligible role, as none of the examined indices show statistically significant differences between the two periods. Combining wind hazard with population and GDP data, we estimate that about 2.9 million people and 63.58 billion USD in GDP were exposed to climate intensified wind conditions. Using a simple damage allocation model and an illustrative total damage of 1 billion USD, about 90 [84,95] million USD are attributed to climate driven wind amplification.
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BibTeX
@article{faranda2026climate,
title = {{Climate change amplified wind-related economic losses during Cyclone Harry (2026)}},
author = {Davide Faranda and Marco Zanchi and Tommaso Alberti},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1002/qj.70314},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05750788v2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate change amplified wind-related economic losses during Cyclone Harry (2026)
AU - Davide Faranda
AU - Marco Zanchi
AU - Tommaso Alberti
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/06
JO - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DO - 10.1002/qj.70314
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05750788v2
AB - Cyclone Harry affected Sicily, Calabria and Sardinia between 19 and 22 January 2026, producing heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal impacts across the central Mediterranean. We assess how the associated meteorological conditions differ between the present climate (1988--2025) and a cooler past (1950--1987) using the multivariate ClimaMeter analogue attribution protocol applied to ERA5 reanalysis. The circulation changes indicate a deepening of the sea level pressure minimum over the cyclone core, while the 500 hPa geopotential height field exhibits positive anomalies over the eastern part of the domain. However, the magnitude of both anomalies remains small compared with the anomalies associated with the event itself. In contrast, surface signals are more robust. Near surface temperature is about 1 to 2°C over the whole domain, and wind speeds increase by about 4 to 6~km/h over the Ionian sector and Sicily. Precipitation changes remain spatially heterogeneous and less robust. Internal variability appears to play a negligible role, as none of the examined indices show statistically significant differences between the two periods. Combining wind hazard with population and GDP data, we estimate that about 2.9 million people and 63.58 billion USD in GDP were exposed to climate intensified wind conditions. Using a simple damage allocation model and an illustrative total damage of 1 billion USD, about 90 [84,95] million USD are attributed to climate driven wind amplification.
SN - 0035-9009
SN - 1477-870X
ER -