Modeling dependent degradation data considering inherent causal relationships for reliability analysis and remaining useful life prediction
Abstract
Accurate modeling of dependent degradation processes is essential for credible reliability assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction in complex systems. Existing dependent degradation models usually describe dependence using correlation-based methods with symmetric characteristics. However, they ignore inherent causal directionality between degradation paths, which may lead to biased reliability evaluation and RUL predictions when physical causality exists. To address this issue, this paper proposes a causality-driven framework for modeling dependent degradation data. Firstly, univariate degradation models with multi-source uncertainties are established for each performance indicator based on the Wiener process. Then, the stable Peter-Clark algorithm is employed to uncover inherent causal relationships between degradation processes, and an uncertainty-aware neural network is employed to quantify causal effects considering uncertainties. Next, univariate degradation predictions and causal predictions are integrated within a Bayesian framework to construct a causally dependent degradation model, and the corresponding loss function is derived for model training. Finally, system reliability and RUL predictions are derived via Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is validated on the C-MAPSS dataset. Results show that considering inherent causal directionality between degradation processes helps eliminate physically unrealistic degradation behaviors, yielding more accurate degradation and RUL predictions than independent and correlation-based dependent degradation models.
Versions
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BibTeX
@misc{chen2026modeling,
title = {{Modeling dependent degradation data considering inherent causal relationships for reliability analysis and remaining useful life prediction}},
author = {Shi-Shun Chen and Xiao-Yang Li},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.31338},
eprint = {2609.31338},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31338},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Modeling dependent degradation data considering inherent causal relationships for reliability analysis and remaining useful life prediction
AU - Shi-Shun Chen
AU - Xiao-Yang Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/25
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.31338
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31338
AB - Accurate modeling of dependent degradation processes is essential for credible reliability assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction in complex systems. Existing dependent degradation models usually describe dependence using correlation-based methods with symmetric characteristics. However, they ignore inherent causal directionality between degradation paths, which may lead to biased reliability evaluation and RUL predictions when physical causality exists. To address this issue, this paper proposes a causality-driven framework for modeling dependent degradation data. Firstly, univariate degradation models with multi-source uncertainties are established for each performance indicator based on the Wiener process. Then, the stable Peter-Clark algorithm is employed to uncover inherent causal relationships between degradation processes, and an uncertainty-aware neural network is employed to quantify causal effects considering uncertainties. Next, univariate degradation predictions and causal predictions are integrated within a Bayesian framework to construct a causally dependent degradation model, and the corresponding loss function is derived for model training. Finally, system reliability and RUL predictions are derived via Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is validated on the C-MAPSS dataset. Results show that considering inherent causal directionality between degradation processes helps eliminate physically unrealistic degradation behaviors, yielding more accurate degradation and RUL predictions than independent and correlation-based dependent degradation models.
ER -