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Peer-reviewedCC BYThe Astrophysical Journal Letters

Nowhere Left to Hide: Revealing Realistic Gravitational-wave Populations in High Dimensions and High Resolution with PixelPop

  • S. Álvarez-López1,2
  • J. Heinzel1,2
  • Matthew Mould1,2,3
  • S. Vitale1,2
  1. 1Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research
  2. 2Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  3. 3University of Nottingham
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

The origins of merging compact binaries observed by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors remain uncertain, with multiple astrophysical channels possibly contributing to the merger rate. Formation processes can imprint nontrivial correlations in the underlying distribution of source properties, but current understanding of the overall population relies heavily on simplified and uncorrelated parametric models. In this work, we use P ixel P op —a high-resolution Bayesian nonparametric model with minimal assumptions—to analyze multidimensional correlations in the astrophysical distribution of masses, spins, and redshifts of black-hole mergers from mock gravitational-wave catalogs constructed using population-synthesis simulations. With full parameter estimation on 400 detections at current sensitivities, we show explicitly that neglecting population-level correlations biases inference. In contrast, modeling all significant correlations with P ixel P op allows us to correctly measure the astrophysical merger rate across all source parameters. We then propose a nonparametric method to distinguish between different formation channels by comparing the P ixel P op results back to astrophysical simulations. For our simulated catalog, we find that only formation channels with significantly different physical processes are distinguishable, whereas channels that share evolutionary stages are not. Given the substantial uncertainties in source formation, our results highlight the necessity of multidimensional astrophysics-agnostic models like P ixel P op for robust interpretation of gravitational-wave catalogs.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{alvarezlopez2026nowhere,
  title = {{Nowhere Left to Hide: Revealing Realistic Gravitational-wave Populations in High Dimensions and High Resolution with PixelPop}},
  author = {S. Álvarez-López and J. Heinzel and Matthew Mould and S. Vitale},
  journal = {The Astrophysical Journal Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.3847/2041-8213/ae81a9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ae81a9},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Nowhere Left to Hide: Revealing Realistic Gravitational-wave Populations in High Dimensions and High Resolution with PixelPop
AU  - S. Álvarez-López
AU  - J. Heinzel
AU  - Matthew Mould
AU  - S. Vitale
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/13
JO  - The Astrophysical Journal Letters
DO  - 10.3847/2041-8213/ae81a9
UR  - https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ae81a9
AB  - The origins of merging compact binaries observed by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors remain uncertain, with multiple astrophysical channels possibly contributing to the merger rate. Formation processes can imprint nontrivial correlations in the underlying distribution of source properties, but current understanding of the overall population relies heavily on simplified and uncorrelated parametric models. In this work, we use P ixel P op —a high-resolution Bayesian nonparametric model with minimal assumptions—to analyze multidimensional correlations in the astrophysical distribution of masses, spins, and redshifts of black-hole mergers from mock gravitational-wave catalogs constructed using population-synthesis simulations. With full parameter estimation on 400 detections at current sensitivities, we show explicitly that neglecting population-level correlations biases inference. In contrast, modeling all significant correlations with P ixel P op allows us to correctly measure the astrophysical merger rate across all source parameters. We then propose a nonparametric method to distinguish between different formation channels by comparing the P ixel P op results back to astrophysical simulations. For our simulated catalog, we find that only formation channels with significantly different physical processes are distinguishable, whereas channels that share evolutionary stages are not. Given the substantial uncertainties in source formation, our results highlight the necessity of multidimensional astrophysics-agnostic models like P ixel P op for robust interpretation of gravitational-wave catalogs.
SN  - 2041-8205
SN  - 2041-8213
ER  -