The Calibration Barrier in Consciousness Science: A Formal Research Strategy for the Hard Problem
- 1University of West London
Abstract
The hard problem asks why physical processes are accompanied by experience. This paper develops a calibration audit for a prior evidential question: whether observations identify a psychophysical correspondence. Reference-relative hypotheses are separated from conventional relabellings. Finite reconstruction results characterize bridge ambiguity, and joint channel transformations show why accurate report prediction can leave it unresolved. Many-to-one bridges are treated through exact and approximate aggregation. Confidence sets propagate sampling error, dependence within independent blocks, episode selection, and noisy physical-state recognition. An exact synthetic benchmark separates approximately 90 percent report accuracy from bridge identification. A comparative benchmark adds weak predictive separation, correlated reports, selection, and channel misspecification across 12000 further replicates. In its weak combined-failure setting at the largest sample size, a plug-in likelihood comparison selects the wrong bridge in all 500 replicates; a correctly bounded audit retains both candidates. That protection has a cost: conservative bounds also leave some valid weak-signal cases unresolved. All procedures can select the wrong bridge under systematically inverted reference labels. The audit is an application of established identification and robust-inference principles, with usefulness demonstrated conditionally in synthetic models. A proposed motion protocol distinguishes reference consistency, operational accuracy, and intrinsic phenomenal identity. No human validation is claimed. Calibration can constrain psychophysical laws; it cannot choose between observationally equivalent metaphysical interpretations or explain why experience exists.
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BibTeX
@misc{hong2026calibration,
title = {{The Calibration Barrier in Consciousness Science: A Formal Research Strategy for the Hard Problem}},
author = {Kwan Hong TAN},
howpublished = {Zenodo},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23524881},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23524881},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - The Calibration Barrier in Consciousness Science: A Formal Research Strategy for the Hard Problem
AU - Kwan Hong TAN
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/21
PB - Zenodo
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23524881
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23524881
AB - The hard problem asks why physical processes are accompanied by experience. This paper develops a calibration audit for a prior evidential question: whether observations identify a psychophysical correspondence. Reference-relative hypotheses are separated from conventional relabellings. Finite reconstruction results characterize bridge ambiguity, and joint channel transformations show why accurate report prediction can leave it unresolved. Many-to-one bridges are treated through exact and approximate aggregation. Confidence sets propagate sampling error, dependence within independent blocks, episode selection, and noisy physical-state recognition. An exact synthetic benchmark separates approximately 90 percent report accuracy from bridge identification. A comparative benchmark adds weak predictive separation, correlated reports, selection, and channel misspecification across 12000 further replicates. In its weak combined-failure setting at the largest sample size, a plug-in likelihood comparison selects the wrong bridge in all 500 replicates; a correctly bounded audit retains both candidates. That protection has a cost: conservative bounds also leave some valid weak-signal cases unresolved. All procedures can select the wrong bridge under systematically inverted reference labels. The audit is an application of established identification and robust-inference principles, with usefulness demonstrated conditionally in synthetic models. A proposed motion protocol distinguishes reference consistency, operational accuracy, and intrinsic phenomenal identity. No human validation is claimed. Calibration can constrain psychophysical laws; it cannot choose between observationally equivalent metaphysical interpretations or explain why experience exists.
ER -