Green space dynamics in a rapidly urbanizing landscape: A multi-temporal remote sensing assessment and CA-Markov modelling of Jashore, Bangladesh
- 1Corresponding authors.
- 2Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Pabna University of Science and Technology, Pabna 6600, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
Abstract
Urban green space is disappearing faster than planning frameworks can track, particularly in secondary cities like Jashore Sadar Upazila, Bangladesh, where monitoring capacity is limited and population growth is rapidly converting green space into built-up land. This study analyzes spatio-temporal LULC change in Jashore Sadar Upazila (2017–2023), focusing on green space loss, built-up expansion, urban heat island effects, and projected scenarios for 2029 and 2032. Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 imagery were analyzed using Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modelling. Multi-directional and gradient-based analysis showed conversion concentrated within 10 km of the CBD and along major transportation corridors. The spatiotemporal study found a loss of 6336.81 ha (52.4%) of green space during this period, accompanied by a significant increase in built-up areas, growing 107.16%. The UHI index, computed as a standardized LST anomaly ( Z -score), ranged from +3.12 to −1.92 Z-score units in 2017 and + 5.68 to −2.13 Z-score units in 2023, indicating progressive thermal polarization, significantly correlated with green space conversion ( r = 0.087, p < 0.001). CA-Markov validation yielded class-level FoM of 31.71% (built-up) and 16.57% (green space); the overall FoM (35.71%) reflects landscape persistence rather than change-prediction skill. The projected LULC maps for 2029 and 2032 indicate a continuation of these trends, with a projected loss of 1634.77–2874.44 ha by 2032, reflecting sensitivity to calibration and residual spatial uncertainty (FoM: 16.57%). These findings underscore the need for proactive urban planning, stricter zoning enforcement, and targeted green space conservation to mitigate future environmental impacts.
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BibTeX
@article{jany2026green,
title = {{Green space dynamics in a rapidly urbanizing landscape: A multi-temporal remote sensing assessment and CA-Markov modelling of Jashore, Bangladesh}},
author = {Kazi Md Arifin Jamil Jany and Abu Nayem Md. Kayes and Md. Kamrul Hasan},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115364},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115364},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Green space dynamics in a rapidly urbanizing landscape: A multi-temporal remote sensing assessment and CA-Markov modelling of Jashore, Bangladesh
AU - Kazi Md Arifin Jamil Jany
AU - Abu Nayem Md. Kayes
AU - Md. Kamrul Hasan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115364
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115364
AB - Urban green space is disappearing faster than planning frameworks can track, particularly in secondary cities like Jashore Sadar Upazila, Bangladesh, where monitoring capacity is limited and population growth is rapidly converting green space into built-up land. This study analyzes spatio-temporal LULC change in Jashore Sadar Upazila (2017–2023), focusing on green space loss, built-up expansion, urban heat island effects, and projected scenarios for 2029 and 2032. Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 imagery were analyzed using Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modelling. Multi-directional and gradient-based analysis showed conversion concentrated within 10 km of the CBD and along major transportation corridors. The spatiotemporal study found a loss of 6336.81 ha (52.4%) of green space during this period, accompanied by a significant increase in built-up areas, growing 107.16%. The UHI index, computed as a standardized LST anomaly ( Z -score), ranged from +3.12 to −1.92 Z-score units in 2017 and + 5.68 to −2.13 Z-score units in 2023, indicating progressive thermal polarization, significantly correlated with green space conversion ( r = 0.087, p < 0.001). CA-Markov validation yielded class-level FoM of 31.71% (built-up) and 16.57% (green space); the overall FoM (35.71%) reflects landscape persistence rather than change-prediction skill. The projected LULC maps for 2029 and 2032 indicate a continuation of these trends, with a projected loss of 1634.77–2874.44 ha by 2032, reflecting sensitivity to calibration and residual spatial uncertainty (FoM: 16.57%). These findings underscore the need for proactive urban planning, stricter zoning enforcement, and targeted green space conservation to mitigate future environmental impacts.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -