Scenario-based ecological zoning by coupling ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk indicators in a rapidly urbanizing river–lake city
- 1College of Geography and Tourism, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China; School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
- 2Department of Biology, Faculty of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Cadiz, Puerto Real, Cadiz 11510, Spain; Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
- 3College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Abstract
Rapid urbanization is restructuring land systems and intensifying tensions between ecosystem service provision and landscape ecological risk. Yet integrated frameworks that connect historical diagnosis, spatial association, future scenario, and zoning-oriented governance remain limited, particularly in river–lake cities with sensitive water–land interfaces. Taking Nanchang, China, as a representative case, this study developed a scenario-based ecological zoning framework integrating ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER). Land-use changes from 2000 to 2025 were quantified, ESV and LER were assessed at a 2 km grid, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation was used to characterize their spatial association. Future land-use, ESV, LER, and ecological zones were then evaluated under four scenarios for 2030 and 2035. From 2000 to 2025, construction land expanded rapidly while cultivated land and water body declined. The proportion of high-ESV areas fell from 4.14% to 2.04%. Although high-LER areas declined from 26.92% to 15.47%, upper-middle and high-risk areas still accounted for 69.05% of the study area in 2025. Bivariate analysis showed a significant but weak-to-moderate positive spatial association, with high-ESV focal cells tending to occur in neighborhoods with relatively high LER, particularly along major river–lake corridors. Future simulations showed that the economic development scenario intensified construction land expansion and reduced Ecological Prevention Zones, whereas the sustainable development scenario better constrained urban growth and maintained key ecological spaces. The proposed framework supports the identification of priority function–risk areas, comparison of alternative land-use futures, and differentiated ecological zoning in rapidly urbanizing river–lake cities.
Related
- Spatiotemporal patterns and bivariate spatial correlation of ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk in karst mountainous Guizhou, southwest China
- Green space dynamics in a rapidly urbanizing landscape: A multi-temporal remote sensing assessment and CA-Markov modelling of Jashore, Bangladesh
- Metabolomic indicators anticipate permafrost peatland ecosystem transition before visible change
- Drivers of ecological network quality change and multi-scenario simulation and optimization in fragile alpine regions: a case study of Lhasa
- Non-linear responses of ecological indicators to urban environmental drivers across Europe
BibTeX
@article{gong2026scenariobased,
title = {{Scenario-based ecological zoning by coupling ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk indicators in a rapidly urbanizing river–lake city}},
author = {Daohong Gong and Shuhui Lai and Eshetu Shifaw and Guangwen Liu},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115733},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115733},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Scenario-based ecological zoning by coupling ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk indicators in a rapidly urbanizing river–lake city
AU - Daohong Gong
AU - Shuhui Lai
AU - Eshetu Shifaw
AU - Guangwen Liu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115733
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115733
AB - Rapid urbanization is restructuring land systems and intensifying tensions between ecosystem service provision and landscape ecological risk. Yet integrated frameworks that connect historical diagnosis, spatial association, future scenario, and zoning-oriented governance remain limited, particularly in river–lake cities with sensitive water–land interfaces. Taking Nanchang, China, as a representative case, this study developed a scenario-based ecological zoning framework integrating ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER). Land-use changes from 2000 to 2025 were quantified, ESV and LER were assessed at a 2 km grid, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation was used to characterize their spatial association. Future land-use, ESV, LER, and ecological zones were then evaluated under four scenarios for 2030 and 2035. From 2000 to 2025, construction land expanded rapidly while cultivated land and water body declined. The proportion of high-ESV areas fell from 4.14% to 2.04%. Although high-LER areas declined from 26.92% to 15.47%, upper-middle and high-risk areas still accounted for 69.05% of the study area in 2025. Bivariate analysis showed a significant but weak-to-moderate positive spatial association, with high-ESV focal cells tending to occur in neighborhoods with relatively high LER, particularly along major river–lake corridors. Future simulations showed that the economic development scenario intensified construction land expansion and reduced Ecological Prevention Zones, whereas the sustainable development scenario better constrained urban growth and maintained key ecological spaces. The proposed framework supports the identification of priority function–risk areas, comparison of alternative land-use futures, and differentiated ecological zoning in rapidly urbanizing river–lake cities.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -