Threats to the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets: A case of reversal risks in the climate-smart agroforestry carbon trading project in Northern Uganda
- 1Corresponding author.
- 2Gulu University Faculty of Business and Development Studies, Gulu City, Uganda
Abstract
Reversal risks affect the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets and gains accruing from them, but their understanding is still limited, as previous studies focused largely on wildfire and the forestry sector. This study advances understanding by examining multiple reversal risks within climate-smart agroforestry projects in Northern through the assessment of the association of reversal risks with agroforestry and extension services and comparison of the risks in climate-smart agroforestry and non-climate-smart agroforestry. We adopted a quasi-experimental design, a quantitative approach, and a stratified sampling technique. Using data collected from 165 project beneficiaries and 180 non-beneficiaries of the project, measures of association and treatment effects based on the propensity score matching model were generated. The results show that reversal of carbon storage in agroforestry is driven by pests and diseases, wildfire, and climate hazards. Pests and diseases, wildfire, and climate hazards are positively and significantly associated with agroforestry among male farmers, but insignificantly with extension services. Project beneficiaries have a higher prevalence of pests and diseases, wildfire, and climate hazards, adoption of agroforestry, and access to extension services compared to non-beneficiaries of the project. The study has practical, policy, and research implications. Practically, there is a need to establish sound reversal risk mitigation strategies and dedicated extension services to enhance adoption of reversal risk-reducing technologies and reversal risk management skills. In terms of policy, there is a need for policies, ordinances, bylaws, and stringent enforcement on wildfire and stray livestock to mitigate the reversal of carbon storage arising from them. The research implications of the study include the analysis of human-induced reversal risks, time preference for trees, and conducting longitudinal and cross-project studies as a means of addressing limitations of the current study.
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BibTeX
@article{canwat2026threats,
title = {{Threats to the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets: A case of reversal risks in the climate-smart agroforestry carbon trading project in Northern Uganda}},
author = {Vincent Canwat and Daniel Mukisa},
journal = {Nature-Based Solutions},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.nbsj.2026.100385},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2026.100385},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Threats to the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets: A case of reversal risks in the climate-smart agroforestry carbon trading project in Northern Uganda
AU - Vincent Canwat
AU - Daniel Mukisa
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Nature-Based Solutions
DO - 10.1016/j.nbsj.2026.100385
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2026.100385
AB - Reversal risks affect the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets and gains accruing from them, but their understanding is still limited, as previous studies focused largely on wildfire and the forestry sector. This study advances understanding by examining multiple reversal risks within climate-smart agroforestry projects in Northern through the assessment of the association of reversal risks with agroforestry and extension services and comparison of the risks in climate-smart agroforestry and non-climate-smart agroforestry. We adopted a quasi-experimental design, a quantitative approach, and a stratified sampling technique. Using data collected from 165 project beneficiaries and 180 non-beneficiaries of the project, measures of association and treatment effects based on the propensity score matching model were generated. The results show that reversal of carbon storage in agroforestry is driven by pests and diseases, wildfire, and climate hazards. Pests and diseases, wildfire, and climate hazards are positively and significantly associated with agroforestry among male farmers, but insignificantly with extension services. Project beneficiaries have a higher prevalence of pests and diseases, wildfire, and climate hazards, adoption of agroforestry, and access to extension services compared to non-beneficiaries of the project. The study has practical, policy, and research implications. Practically, there is a need to establish sound reversal risk mitigation strategies and dedicated extension services to enhance adoption of reversal risk-reducing technologies and reversal risk management skills. In terms of policy, there is a need for policies, ordinances, bylaws, and stringent enforcement on wildfire and stray livestock to mitigate the reversal of carbon storage arising from them. The research implications of the study include the analysis of human-induced reversal risks, time preference for trees, and conducting longitudinal and cross-project studies as a means of addressing limitations of the current study.
SN - 2772-4115
ER -