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Statistical analysis of the remaining human life expectancy. Mathematical models of the type Gompertz-Makeham and others

  • Kateryna Akbash
  • Ivan Matsak
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Abstract

Many researchers believe that human lifetime on the interval (30,80) years is described by the Gompertz-Makeham distribution. In this work, the task is set to test this hypothesis. We consider a number of distributions: Gompertz-Makeham, Gompertz-Weibull, Logistic Kannisto-Makeham, Logistic Beard-Makeham and Logistic Beard-Weibull, some of which are partially known, for which comparative calculations on real mortality data are performed using the χ2 criterion. The data were selected for three countries: England \& Wales, Norway and Sweden, cohorts born in 1900. As it turned out, on the interval (30,80) years the Gompertz-Makeham distribution is far from being the best among those listed above. In addition, for the same data, a similar problem was studied for the interval (80,120) years.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{akbash2026statistical,
  title = {{Statistical analysis of the remaining human life expectancy. Mathematical models of the type Gompertz-Makeham and others}},
  author = {Kateryna Akbash and Ivan Matsak},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2611.03666},
  eprint = {2611.03666},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.03666},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Statistical analysis of the remaining human life expectancy. Mathematical models of the type Gompertz-Makeham and others
AU  - Kateryna Akbash
AU  - Ivan Matsak
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/01
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2611.03666
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.03666
AB  - Many researchers believe that human lifetime on the interval (30,80) years is described by the Gompertz-Makeham distribution. In this work, the task is set to test this hypothesis. We consider a number of distributions: Gompertz-Makeham, Gompertz-Weibull, Logistic Kannisto-Makeham, Logistic Beard-Makeham and Logistic Beard-Weibull, some of which are partially known, for which comparative calculations on real mortality data are performed using the χ^2 criterion. The data were selected for three countries: England \& Wales, Norway and Sweden, cohorts born in 1900. As it turned out, on the interval (30,80) years the Gompertz-Makeham distribution is far from being the best among those listed above. In addition, for the same data, a similar problem was studied for the interval (80,120) years.
ER  -