Diabetes and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis: A comparative survival analysis with complementary machine-learning methods
4 affiliations
- 1Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Westminster, London, United Kingdom
- 2Department of Nephrology, Etlik City Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye
- 3Department of Nephrology, University of Health Sciences, Etlik City Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye
- 4Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine Hacettepe University, Ankara, Türkiye
Abstract
Background: Diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease and confers excess mortality in patients on hemodialysis. However, which diabetes-specific clinical parameters best predict survival remains insufficiently explored. Methods: This retrospective cohort study followed 252 patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis (126 with diabetes, 126 without) from three centres in Ankara, Turkey, over 68 months (January 2020–September 2025; 66 deaths). Mortality predictors were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, propensity score–weighted regression, and gradient-boosted machine-learning survival analysis. Eleven diabetes-specific parameters were examined within the diabetes subgroup. Results: Diabetes was associated with reduced survival (log-rank p = 0.038) and a 68% higher mortality hazard (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02–2.75). After multivariable adjustment, the association was attenuated but directionally consistent across all specifications (HR 1.52–1.66). Within the diabetes subgroup, HbA1c was the strongest modifiable predictor (adjusted HR 1.43 per 1%, 95% CI 1.17–1.76, p < 0.001), improving model discrimination (C-index 0.679 vs. 0.652). No other diabetes-specific parameter, including retinopathy, diabetic foot, and diabetes duration, independently predicted mortality. Conclusion: In this Turkish hemodialysis cohort, diabetes showed a consistent adverse trend toward higher mortality. HbA1c was the dominant modifiable predictor, supporting the integration of structured glycaemic monitoring into routine hemodialysis care.
Related
- Blood and saliva provide complementary but non-redundant host transcriptomic responses to cancer
- Mapping the Nonhistone Interactome of the TRIM24 Bromodomain Using Genetically Encoded Complementary Photocrosslinkers
- Complementary single-nucleus and single-cell RNA sequencing reveal tumor state evolution and microenvironmental rewiring in NSCLC
- Complementary roles of human protamine 1 and spermine in giant DNA compaction
- Leukocyte Regulation by Exercise and Complementary Lifestyle Factors in Cardiovascular Health
BibTeX
@article{aylı2026diabetes,
title = {{Diabetes and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis: A comparative survival analysis with complementary machine-learning methods}},
author = {Berrak Itır Aylı and Çiğdem Ikhlef and Ebru Gök Oğuz and Nüket Paksoy},
journal = {PLOS One},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0349639},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0349639},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Diabetes and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis: A comparative survival analysis with complementary machine-learning methods
AU - Berrak Itır Aylı
AU - Çiğdem Ikhlef
AU - Ebru Gök Oğuz
AU - Nüket Paksoy
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
JO - PLOS One
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0349639
UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0349639
AB - Background: Diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease and confers excess mortality in patients on hemodialysis. However, which diabetes-specific clinical parameters best predict survival remains insufficiently explored. Methods: This retrospective cohort study followed 252 patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis (126 with diabetes, 126 without) from three centres in Ankara, Turkey, over 68 months (January 2020–September 2025; 66 deaths). Mortality predictors were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, propensity score–weighted regression, and gradient-boosted machine-learning survival analysis. Eleven diabetes-specific parameters were examined within the diabetes subgroup. Results: Diabetes was associated with reduced survival (log-rank p = 0.038) and a 68% higher mortality hazard (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02–2.75). After multivariable adjustment, the association was attenuated but directionally consistent across all specifications (HR 1.52–1.66). Within the diabetes subgroup, HbA1c was the strongest modifiable predictor (adjusted HR 1.43 per 1%, 95% CI 1.17–1.76, p < 0.001), improving model discrimination (C-index 0.679 vs. 0.652). No other diabetes-specific parameter, including retinopathy, diabetic foot, and diabetes duration, independently predicted mortality. Conclusion: In this Turkish hemodialysis cohort, diabetes showed a consistent adverse trend toward higher mortality. HbA1c was the dominant modifiable predictor, supporting the integration of structured glycaemic monitoring into routine hemodialysis care.
SN - 1932-6203
ER -