PreprintarXiv licencearXiv
Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Niño
Abstract
A potentially super El Niño is forecasted in 2026, raising the need to anticipate land carbon-cycle risks before its impacts unfold. We develop a prospective early-warning framework that uses dynamic global vegetation models driven by an ensemble of ECMWF seasonal climate forecasts and machine-learning burned area predictions. Forecasts indicate a 0.23 ± 0.21 PgC reduction in global net biome productivity in the second half of 2026, with hotspots of sink weakening in eastern South America and elevated fire risk in Southeast Asia.
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BibTeX
@misc{du2026forecasting,
title = {{Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Niño}},
author = {Xiaomeng Du and Runda Jiang and Philippe Ciais and Pierre Friedlingstein and Stephen Sitch and Mike O'Sullivan and Jefferson Goncalves de Souza and Tim Stripp and Eloi Lindas and Piyu Ke and Yi Xi and Minxuan Sun and Xiaoran Wu and Mengjie Han and Shanshan Song and Qiang Zhang and Wei Li},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.16714},
eprint = {2610.16714},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16714},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Niño
AU - Xiaomeng Du
AU - Runda Jiang
AU - Philippe Ciais
AU - Pierre Friedlingstein
AU - Stephen Sitch
AU - Mike O'Sullivan
AU - Jefferson Goncalves de Souza
AU - Tim Stripp
AU - Eloi Lindas
AU - Piyu Ke
AU - Yi Xi
AU - Minxuan Sun
AU - Xiaoran Wu
AU - Mengjie Han
AU - Shanshan Song
AU - Qiang Zhang
AU - Wei Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/21
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.16714
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16714
AB - A potentially super El Niño is forecasted in 2026, raising the need to anticipate land carbon-cycle risks before its impacts unfold. We develop a prospective early-warning framework that uses dynamic global vegetation models driven by an ensemble of ECMWF seasonal climate forecasts and machine-learning burned area predictions. Forecasts indicate a 0.23 ± 0.21 PgC reduction in global net biome productivity in the second half of 2026, with hotspots of sink weakening in eastern South America and elevated fire risk in Southeast Asia.
ER -