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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature Communications

Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones

  • Yinxue Liu1,2
  • Michel Wortmann3,4
  • Laurence Paul Hawker5
  • Jeffrey Charles Neal5
  • Jiabo Yin6,7
  • Marcus Suassuna Santos8
  • Bailey J. Anderson9,10
  • Richard James Boothroyd11
  • Andrew Nicholas12
  • Gregory H. Sambrook Smith13
  • Philip J. Ashworth14,12
  • Hannah Cloke15,16
10 more authors
  • Solomon H. Gebrechorkos17,6
  • Julian Leyland17
  • Boen Zhang6
  • Ellie Vahidi12
  • Helen Griffith18
  • Pauline Delorme19
  • Stuart McLelland19
  • Daniel R. Parsons20,21
  • Stephen E. Darby17
  • Louise J. Slater22
22 affiliations
  1. 1Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK. [email protected]
  2. 2School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. [email protected]
  3. 3European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Shinfield Park, Reading, UK. [email protected]
  4. 4School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. [email protected]
  5. 5School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, UK
  6. 6School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK
  7. 7State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  8. 8Department of Hydrology, Geological Survey of Brazil - SGB/CPRM, Brasilia, Brazil
  9. 9Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  10. 10WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
  11. 11Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
  12. 12Geography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
  13. 13School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
  14. 14Department of Earth Science and Environmental Change, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA
  15. 15Department of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  16. 16Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  17. 17School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
  18. 18JBA Consulting, 1 Broughton Park, Old Lane North, Broughton, Skipton, UK
  19. 19Energy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Hull, UK
  20. 20Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
  21. 21Vice Chancellor's Office, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
  22. 22School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. [email protected]
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Abstract

Bankfull discharge, the maximum flow a river can convey before spilling over its banks, is central to modelling flood risk and understanding river-channel evolution. Global flood inundation models assume a 2-year return period for bankfull conditions, but this assumption remains untested globally. Here we use observations and machine learning to estimate bankfull discharge at ~1-km resolution along a recently developed global river network. We show that the widely used 2-year discharge reasonably approximates bankfull-flow magnitude, but bankfull return periods vary substantially within and across climate zones. Bankfull conditions occur more frequently in tropical and temperate regions (median return periods of 1.5 and 1.8 years; interquartile ranges of 2.5 and 3.2 years, respectively) and less frequently in cold and arid regions (2.8 and 4.3 years; interquartile ranges of 4.8 and 6.0 years). This variation across climate zones provides a basis for improving the representation of channel capacity in global flood models.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{liu2026global,
  title = {{Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones}},
  author = {Yinxue Liu and Michel Wortmann and Laurence Paul Hawker and Jeffrey Charles Neal and Jiabo Yin and Marcus Suassuna Santos and Bailey J. Anderson and Richard James Boothroyd and Andrew Nicholas and Gregory H. Sambrook Smith and Philip J. Ashworth and Hannah Cloke and Solomon H. Gebrechorkos and Julian Leyland and Boen Zhang and Ellie Vahidi and Helen Griffith and Pauline Delorme and Stuart McLelland and Daniel R. Parsons and Stephen E. Darby and Louise J. Slater},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  month = aug,
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones
AU  - Yinxue Liu
AU  - Michel Wortmann
AU  - Laurence Paul Hawker
AU  - Jeffrey Charles Neal
AU  - Jiabo Yin
AU  - Marcus Suassuna Santos
AU  - Bailey J. Anderson
AU  - Richard James Boothroyd
AU  - Andrew Nicholas
AU  - Gregory H. Sambrook Smith
AU  - Philip J. Ashworth
AU  - Hannah Cloke
AU  - Solomon H. Gebrechorkos
AU  - Julian Leyland
AU  - Boen Zhang
AU  - Ellie Vahidi
AU  - Helen Griffith
AU  - Pauline Delorme
AU  - Stuart McLelland
AU  - Daniel R. Parsons
AU  - Stephen E. Darby
AU  - Louise J. Slater
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/18
JO  - Nature Communications
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3
AB  - Bankfull discharge, the maximum flow a river can convey before spilling over its banks, is central to modelling flood risk and understanding river-channel evolution. Global flood inundation models assume a 2-year return period for bankfull conditions, but this assumption remains untested globally. Here we use observations and machine learning to estimate bankfull discharge at ~1-km resolution along a recently developed global river network. We show that the widely used 2-year discharge reasonably approximates bankfull-flow magnitude, but bankfull return periods vary substantially within and across climate zones. Bankfull conditions occur more frequently in tropical and temperate regions (median return periods of 1.5 and 1.8 years; interquartile ranges of 2.5 and 3.2 years, respectively) and less frequently in cold and arid regions (2.8 and 4.3 years; interquartile ranges of 4.8 and 6.0 years). This variation across climate zones provides a basis for improving the representation of channel capacity in global flood models.
SN  - 2041-1723
ER  -