Historical and projected land-cover dynamics in the Toba Highland Peatlands, Indonesia: An ANN–CA modeling approach
4 affiliations
- 1Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia; Corresponding author at: Almamater Street, Padang Bulan, Medan Baru District, Medan City, North Sumatra, 20155, Indonesia.
- 2Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia
- 3Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, 20155, Indonesia
- 4Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific (RRC.AP), Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand
Abstract
Tropical mountain peatlands have received far less attention than lowland peat systems, and future land-cover trajectories have not previously been projected for the mapped Toba Highland Peatlands of North Sumatra, Indonesia. Using previously classified Landsat land-cover maps for 2014, 2019 and 2023, this study quantified land-cover transitions and projected land cover for 2028–2038 with an Artificial Neural Network–Cellular Automata (ANN–CA) model in MOLUSCE. The analysis used a nested design: a 65,603-ha landscape comprising Lintong Nihuta, Dolok Sanggul and Pollung districts (Humbang Hasundutan Regency), and the c. 6180-ha mapped peatland within it. Near-surface peat bulk density was measured at four cultivated sites (eight ring samples) as complementary field information. Cultivated land expanded from 24.8% to 44.0% of the landscape between 2014 and 2019 and remained at 43.2% in 2023, mainly at the expense of natural forest and open land. A 2023 hindcast agreed well with the classified reference map (Correctness 93.32%; Kappa Overall 0.896). Under the modeled conditions, cultivated land is projected to occupy 65.05% of the landscape and 94.75% of the mapped peatland by 2038, up from 70.61% of the peatland in 2023, while natural forest within the peatland declines to 0.64%. Dry bulk density ranged from 0.21 to 0.47 g cm⁻³; these site-level values do not represent peatland-wide conditions. The projections are conditional scenarios rather than forecasts, but they show that land-use pressure is concentrated within the peatland, where peat hydrology and the remaining non-agricultural cover should be priorities for monitoring and management.
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BibTeX
@article{manalu2026historical,
title = {{Historical and projected land-cover dynamics in the Toba Highland Peatlands, Indonesia: An ANN–CA modeling approach}},
author = {Sarah Patumona Manalu and T. Sabrina and Fadhila Fadhila and Ronald Leonardo Siregar and Ade Citra Nadhira and Solomon Kofi Mensah Huno and Dea Anggraini Sitorus},
journal = {Environmental Challenges},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.envc.2026.101702},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101702},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Historical and projected land-cover dynamics in the Toba Highland Peatlands, Indonesia: An ANN–CA modeling approach
AU - Sarah Patumona Manalu
AU - T. Sabrina
AU - Fadhila Fadhila
AU - Ronald Leonardo Siregar
AU - Ade Citra Nadhira
AU - Solomon Kofi Mensah Huno
AU - Dea Anggraini Sitorus
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Environmental Challenges
DO - 10.1016/j.envc.2026.101702
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101702
AB - Tropical mountain peatlands have received far less attention than lowland peat systems, and future land-cover trajectories have not previously been projected for the mapped Toba Highland Peatlands of North Sumatra, Indonesia. Using previously classified Landsat land-cover maps for 2014, 2019 and 2023, this study quantified land-cover transitions and projected land cover for 2028–2038 with an Artificial Neural Network–Cellular Automata (ANN–CA) model in MOLUSCE. The analysis used a nested design: a 65,603-ha landscape comprising Lintong Nihuta, Dolok Sanggul and Pollung districts (Humbang Hasundutan Regency), and the c. 6180-ha mapped peatland within it. Near-surface peat bulk density was measured at four cultivated sites (eight ring samples) as complementary field information. Cultivated land expanded from 24.8% to 44.0% of the landscape between 2014 and 2019 and remained at 43.2% in 2023, mainly at the expense of natural forest and open land. A 2023 hindcast agreed well with the classified reference map (Correctness 93.32%; Kappa Overall 0.896). Under the modeled conditions, cultivated land is projected to occupy 65.05% of the landscape and 94.75% of the mapped peatland by 2038, up from 70.61% of the peatland in 2023, while natural forest within the peatland declines to 0.64%. Dry bulk density ranged from 0.21 to 0.47 g cm⁻³; these site-level values do not represent peatland-wide conditions. The projections are conditional scenarios rather than forecasts, but they show that land-use pressure is concentrated within the peatland, where peat hydrology and the remaining non-agricultural cover should be priorities for monitoring and management.
SN - 2667-0100
ER -