Global failure to track international biodiversity targets on islands
- 1University of Vienna
Abstract
Islands harbour exceptional biodiversity but face severe threats, making their conservation crucial to achieving the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We therefore evaluated whether existing indicators can track progress toward the Framework's 23 targets across islands worldwide. We screened 504 biodiversity and socioeconomic indicators from the official framework and other global initiatives, retaining 47 indicators. Historical time series from 1950 onward were modelled and projected to 2030. Indicators were also classified using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) and Theory of Change (ToC). Results showed uneven progress: eight targets improved across all available indicators, while ten displayed conflicting trends. Nearly half of the indicators focused on policy and management responses showed improvement, whereas trends in biodiversity pressures and states were mixed. Critically, 15 of 23 targets (65%) lacked a suitable headline indicator, and five targets had no indicator at all. Notably, Targets 2 and 8, addressing ecosystem restoration and climate change impacts, respectively, lacked island indicators entirely. Over half of the available indicators (29 of 47; 62%) were reported at the national level, limiting their applicability to subnational island jurisdictions and potentially obscuring differences between mainland and island conditions. Most targets also lacked quantitative objectives, limiting evaluation of whether the rate of change is sufficient to meet the targets by 2030. We recommend island-level reporting, island-specific indicators, and quantitative benchmarks tailored to island needs.
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BibTeX
@misc{mologni2026global,
title = {{Global failure to track international biodiversity targets on islands}},
author = {F. Mologni and F. Essl and C. Ah-Peng and P. A. V. Borges and G. Camperio and R. Otto Dittmann and R. B. Elias and B. Emerson and J. M. Fernandez-Palacios and R. Gabriel and S. D. Gomes and N. R. Guerrero-Ramirez and H. Kreft and L. de Nascimento and J. Patino and E. Rocafull and S. Suter and N. Sierra Cornejo and P. Weigelt and N. Wilding and D. C. Zemp and B. Lenzner},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.12.758463},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.12.758463v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Global failure to track international biodiversity targets on islands
AU - F. Mologni
AU - F. Essl
AU - C. Ah-Peng
AU - P. A. V. Borges
AU - G. Camperio
AU - R. Otto Dittmann
AU - R. B. Elias
AU - B. Emerson
AU - J. M. Fernandez-Palacios
AU - R. Gabriel
AU - S. D. Gomes
AU - N. R. Guerrero-Ramirez
AU - H. Kreft
AU - L. de Nascimento
AU - J. Patino
AU - E. Rocafull
AU - S. Suter
AU - N. Sierra Cornejo
AU - P. Weigelt
AU - N. Wilding
AU - D. C. Zemp
AU - B. Lenzner
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/12
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.12.758463
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.12.758463v1
AB - Islands harbour exceptional biodiversity but face severe threats, making their conservation crucial to achieving the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We therefore evaluated whether existing indicators can track progress toward the Framework's 23 targets across islands worldwide. We screened 504 biodiversity and socioeconomic indicators from the official framework and other global initiatives, retaining 47 indicators. Historical time series from 1950 onward were modelled and projected to 2030. Indicators were also classified using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) and Theory of Change (ToC). Results showed uneven progress: eight targets improved across all available indicators, while ten displayed conflicting trends. Nearly half of the indicators focused on policy and management responses showed improvement, whereas trends in biodiversity pressures and states were mixed. Critically, 15 of 23 targets (65%) lacked a suitable headline indicator, and five targets had no indicator at all. Notably, Targets 2 and 8, addressing ecosystem restoration and climate change impacts, respectively, lacked island indicators entirely. Over half of the available indicators (29 of 47; 62%) were reported at the national level, limiting their applicability to subnational island jurisdictions and potentially obscuring differences between mainland and island conditions. Most targets also lacked quantitative objectives, limiting evaluation of whether the rate of change is sufficient to meet the targets by 2030. We recommend island-level reporting, island-specific indicators, and quantitative benchmarks tailored to island needs.
ER -