Global threat exposure of islands in a changing world
Abstract
Islands are at the forefront of global environmental change. Biological invasions, land-use change, and climate change are driving population declines and causing irreversible losses in island ecosystems. Although global threat exposure maps have been developed in recent years, they are mostly designed for coarse-grained, continental-extent analyses, often overlooking islands. Here, we assessed the cumulative exposure to biological invasion, land-use change, and climate change by 2050, for more than 16,000 islands worldwide using multiple threat markers. Climate change emerged as a ubiquitous threat, being the dominant threat for 65% of all islands, followed by land-use change (22%) and biological invasions (13%). Islands with the highest cumulative exposure were more likely to be isolated, without historical connection with the mainland. Small and low-elevation islands at low latitudes exhibited greater exposure to climate change, whereas larger, high-elevation islands tended to be more exposed to land-use change. Certain countries and subdivisions, such as Seychelles, Bangladesh, China, French Polynesia, and Micronesia, harbored statistically disproportionate numbers of highly exposed islands, highlighting geographic hotspots of cumulative exposure where conservation efforts might be particularly urgent. Our study indicates that by 2050, most islands will be simultaneously exposed to a triple threat arising from the combined impacts of land-use change, climate change, and biological invasions. This study provides robust quantification of island cumulative exposure to three key drivers of biodiversity loss, making a crucial step toward assessing global biodiversity vulnerability.
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BibTeX
@article{marino2026global,
title = {{Global threat exposure of islands in a changing world}},
author = {Clara Marino and Martin Philippe-Lesaffre and Filipa Coutinho Soares and Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira Caetano and Adrienne Etard and Nathalie Butt and Pol Capdevila and Severin Irl and Camille Leclerc and Jonathan Roger Michel Henri Lenoir and Jairo Patiño and François Rigal and Ana Benítez-López and Céline Bellard},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2534106123},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05804159v1},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Global threat exposure of islands in a changing world
AU - Clara Marino
AU - Martin Philippe-Lesaffre
AU - Filipa Coutinho Soares
AU - Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira Caetano
AU - Adrienne Etard
AU - Nathalie Butt
AU - Pol Capdevila
AU - Severin Irl
AU - Camille Leclerc
AU - Jonathan Roger Michel Henri Lenoir
AU - Jairo Patiño
AU - François Rigal
AU - Ana Benítez-López
AU - Céline Bellard
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/27
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2534106123
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05804159v1
AB - Islands are at the forefront of global environmental change. Biological invasions, land-use change, and climate change are driving population declines and causing irreversible losses in island ecosystems. Although global threat exposure maps have been developed in recent years, they are mostly designed for coarse-grained, continental-extent analyses, often overlooking islands. Here, we assessed the cumulative exposure to biological invasion, land-use change, and climate change by 2050, for more than 16,000 islands worldwide using multiple threat markers. Climate change emerged as a ubiquitous threat, being the dominant threat for 65% of all islands, followed by land-use change (22%) and biological invasions (13%). Islands with the highest cumulative exposure were more likely to be isolated, without historical connection with the mainland. Small and low-elevation islands at low latitudes exhibited greater exposure to climate change, whereas larger, high-elevation islands tended to be more exposed to land-use change. Certain countries and subdivisions, such as Seychelles, Bangladesh, China, French Polynesia, and Micronesia, harbored statistically disproportionate numbers of highly exposed islands, highlighting geographic hotspots of cumulative exposure where conservation efforts might be particularly urgent. Our study indicates that by 2050, most islands will be simultaneously exposed to a triple threat arising from the combined impacts of land-use change, climate change, and biological invasions. This study provides robust quantification of island cumulative exposure to three key drivers of biodiversity loss, making a crucial step toward assessing global biodiversity vulnerability.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -