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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-NDNatural Hazards Research

Mapping health vulnerability in Australia in the context of environmental disasters

  • K. Shuvo Bakar1
  • Ellen McDonald2
  • Jahidur Rahman Khan3
  • Rebecca McNaught4
  • Ayesha Sohail5
  • Bohao Chen6
  • Haidong Kan7
  • Libo Wu8
  • Ying Zhang2
8 affiliations
  1. 1School of Public Health, University of Sydney, NSW, 2050, Australia; Corresponding author.
  2. 2School of Public Health, University of Sydney, NSW, 2050, Australia
  3. 3School of Clinical Medicine, UNSW, NSW, 2031, Australia
  4. 4School of Public Health, University of Sydney, NSW, 2050, Australia; University Centre for Rural Health, University of Sydney, NSW, 2480, Australia
  5. 5School of Public Health, University of Sydney, NSW, 2050, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia
  6. 6Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China; School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China
  7. 7Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China
  8. 8School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China
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Abstract

Introduction: Australia faces increasing health pressures from climate-related disasters, particularly bushfires and floods, which interact with existing social and geographic inequities. Traditional health indexes rarely capture these environmental disruptions, limiting their ability to inform climate-resilient health policy. This study develops a holistic, multi-system health-environment index (HEI) tailored to the Australian context, integrating disaster exposure as a core environmental determinant. The aim was to evaluate how disaster-related vulnerability affects sustainable health outcomes across Local Government Areas (LGAs) nationwide. Methods: Three domains, health status, socioeconomic conditions, and environmental vulnerability were used to construct the index. The environmental domain was operationalised in three versions based on exposure to all disasters, bushfires, and floods, reflecting Australia's major climate hazards. Domain indicators were extracted from the 2021 Australian Census via Table-Builder and combined using principal component analysis to produce three separate composite indexes. Welch's t-tests compared index scores between disaster-exposed and unexposed LGAs. Spatial patterns were assessed using Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) to identify clusters of vulnerability. Results: LGAs exposed to disasters showed significant lagged effects demonstrated significantly higher (poorer) health-environment index scores compared with unexposed LGAs across all index variations. Spatial analysis revealed clustering, with identifiable hotspots of poor health and environmental vulnerability across Australia. Findings suggest that disaster exposure is a substantial and spatially patterned contributor to poorer population health. Conclusion: This study provides the first Australia-wide, multi-system health-environment index that embeds disaster exposure as an indicator of environmental sustainability and climate vulnerability. By mapping hotspots where disaster risk and health disadvantage overlap, the index offers a practical tool for targeted resource allocation, climate-resilient planning, and equitable public health strategies.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{bakar2026mapping,
  title = {{Mapping health vulnerability in Australia in the context of environmental disasters}},
  author = {K. Shuvo Bakar and Ellen McDonald and Jahidur Rahman Khan and Rebecca McNaught and Ayesha Sohail and Bohao Chen and Haidong Kan and Libo Wu and Ying Zhang},
  journal = {Natural Hazards Research},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1016/j.nhres.2026.03.001},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2026.03.001},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Mapping health vulnerability in Australia in the context of environmental disasters
AU  - K. Shuvo Bakar
AU  - Ellen McDonald
AU  - Jahidur Rahman Khan
AU  - Rebecca McNaught
AU  - Ayesha Sohail
AU  - Bohao Chen
AU  - Haidong Kan
AU  - Libo Wu
AU  - Ying Zhang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/01
JO  - Natural Hazards Research
DO  - 10.1016/j.nhres.2026.03.001
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2026.03.001
AB  - Introduction: Australia faces increasing health pressures from climate-related disasters, particularly bushfires and floods, which interact with existing social and geographic inequities. Traditional health indexes rarely capture these environmental disruptions, limiting their ability to inform climate-resilient health policy. This study develops a holistic, multi-system health-environment index (HEI) tailored to the Australian context, integrating disaster exposure as a core environmental determinant. The aim was to evaluate how disaster-related vulnerability affects sustainable health outcomes across Local Government Areas (LGAs) nationwide. Methods: Three domains, health status, socioeconomic conditions, and environmental vulnerability were used to construct the index. The environmental domain was operationalised in three versions based on exposure to all disasters, bushfires, and floods, reflecting Australia's major climate hazards. Domain indicators were extracted from the 2021 Australian Census via Table-Builder and combined using principal component analysis to produce three separate composite indexes. Welch's t-tests compared index scores between disaster-exposed and unexposed LGAs. Spatial patterns were assessed using Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) to identify clusters of vulnerability. Results: LGAs exposed to disasters showed significant lagged effects demonstrated significantly higher (poorer) health-environment index scores compared with unexposed LGAs across all index variations. Spatial analysis revealed clustering, with identifiable hotspots of poor health and environmental vulnerability across Australia. Findings suggest that disaster exposure is a substantial and spatially patterned contributor to poorer population health. Conclusion: This study provides the first Australia-wide, multi-system health-environment index that embeds disaster exposure as an indicator of environmental sustainability and climate vulnerability. By mapping hotspots where disaster risk and health disadvantage overlap, the index offers a practical tool for targeted resource allocation, climate-resilient planning, and equitable public health strategies.
SN  - 2666-5921
ER  -