Hidden urban exposure to energy-price shocks: spreading burdens and shifting hotspots
Abstract
Cities need to anticipate where energy-price shocks could intensify hardship beyond established hotspots. How income distributions and fuel-price balances jointly shape this hidden exposure remains unclear. Here we address this gap by stress-testing nearly one million properties in six English local authorities, combining required-energy costs for existing housing with modelled local income distributions. Under gas-led crisis prices, 41% of neighbourhoods in the highest local exposure quarter lie outside the highest official fuel-poverty quarter. Electricity-led stress changes this hidden geography: when electricity unit prices alone triple from 2021, comparable to the unmitigated late-2022 cap increase, 38% of the resulting hidden-exposure group are absent from the crisis-based group. Entering neighbourhoods have newer, more efficient housing, more flats and greater electricity dependence than retained areas. Crisis preparedness should extend household protection beyond current hardship hotspots, using fuel-specific stress tests to anticipate support needs as fuel prices and heating systems change.
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BibTeX
@misc{bai2026hidden,
title = {{Hidden urban exposure to energy-price shocks: spreading burdens and shifting hotspots}},
author = {Yunfei Bai and Aaron Tesfa Tsion and Raúl Rosales and Barbara Shollock and Wei He},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.24388},
eprint = {2610.24388},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24388},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Hidden urban exposure to energy-price shocks: spreading burdens and shifting hotspots
AU - Yunfei Bai
AU - Aaron Tesfa Tsion
AU - Raúl Rosales
AU - Barbara Shollock
AU - Wei He
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/17
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.24388
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24388
AB - Cities need to anticipate where energy-price shocks could intensify hardship beyond established hotspots. How income distributions and fuel-price balances jointly shape this hidden exposure remains unclear. Here we address this gap by stress-testing nearly one million properties in six English local authorities, combining required-energy costs for existing housing with modelled local income distributions. Under gas-led crisis prices, 41% of neighbourhoods in the highest local exposure quarter lie outside the highest official fuel-poverty quarter. Electricity-led stress changes this hidden geography: when electricity unit prices alone triple from 2021, comparable to the unmitigated late-2022 cap increase, 38% of the resulting hidden-exposure group are absent from the crisis-based group. Entering neighbourhoods have newer, more efficient housing, more flats and greater electricity dependence than retained areas. Crisis preparedness should extend household protection beyond current hardship hotspots, using fuel-specific stress tests to anticipate support needs as fuel prices and heating systems change.
ER -