Anaerobic Speed Reserve and Critical Speed as Predictors of 200 m Front Crawl Performance: A Practical Alternative to Physiological Testing in Trained Swimmers.
6 affiliations
- 1PHysical Activity, Sport and Exercise (PHASE) Research Group, School of Allied Health (Exercise Science), Murdoch University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
- 2Western Australian Institute of Sport, Mount Claremont, Western Australia, Australia.
- 3School of Human Sciences (Exercise and Sport Science), The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
- 4Centre for Healthy Ageing, Health Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
- 5Victorian Institute of Sport, Albert Park, Victoria, Australia.
- 6Research Institute for Sport and Exercise, University of Canberra, Bruce, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Abstract
Anaerobic speed reserve (ASR) and critical speed (CS) offer practical, performance-based estimates of physiological tolerances, and can be derived from maximal aerobic speed (MAS) and maximal sprint speed (MSS) in swimming. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of ASR and CS for 200 m front crawl performance in trained swimmers, and whether the addition of physiological markers could improve model accuracy. Seventeen trained male (n = 8) and female (n = 9) swimmers completed three maximal front crawl time-trials (50, 200, and 400 m) on different days, with 50 m (MSS) and 400 m (MAS) used to determine ASR and CS. Blood gas variables, blood lactate concentration (BLa), peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak), blood bicarbonate concentration (HCO₃), and blood pH were measured pre- and post-trial. Linear regression models were developed, with multivariate analysis of variance assessing the impact of distance on all variables. MSS was the best predictor of 200 m performance (R² = 0.83), followed by CS (R² = 0.69), whereas ASR provided moderate predictive capabilities (R² = 0.36). The addition of CS to MSS provided our strongest two-factor model (R² = 0.93), decreasing mean absolute error (MAE) from 2.41 to 1.62 s, closely followed by MSS + ASR (R² = 0.92, MAE = 1.74 s). Physiological markers of aerobic (VO2peak: r = 0.44, p > 0.05) and anaerobic capacity (ΔHCO₃: r = 0.54; ΔpH: r = 0.48; and ΔBLa: r = 0.57, all p < 0.05) were only moderately correlated with 200 m front crawl performance, and didn't meaningfully improve regression models. MSS provided the highest prediction of 200 m times, whereas ASR and CS provide practical alternatives to the collection of physiological variables which further distinguish performance potential in swimming cohorts.
Related
- A Practical Alternative to Refine the Estimate of fmCYP3A4 and Evaluate Drug–Drug Interaction Potential for Ziftomenib Using PBPK Modeling to Inform Labeling
- Psychosocial predictors and justification patterns of traditional and alternative medicine in Peru
- Navigating Treatment Pathways in Diabetic Foot Infection: A Practical Retrospective Analysis of Healing Predictors and the WIfI System.
- Estimation of aerobic and anaerobic performance using a novel intermittent reactive agility test – An exploratory correlation study
- Body Water Distribution and Phase Angle Are Differentially Related to Anaerobic Performance by Occupational Status in Firefighters: A Cross-Sectional Study.
BibTeX
@article{lanigan2026anaerobic,
title = {{Anaerobic Speed Reserve and Critical Speed as Predictors of 200 m Front Crawl Performance: A Practical Alternative to Physiological Testing in Trained Swimmers.}},
author = {Bryce J O Lanigan and Martyn J Binnie and Peter Peeling and Brendan R Scott and Jeremiah J Peiffer and Brad Wall and Eoghan Trihy and Lachlan Mitchell and David B Pyne and Paul S R Goods},
journal = {European journal of sport science},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1002/ejsc.70256},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42894481},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Anaerobic Speed Reserve and Critical Speed as Predictors of 200 m Front Crawl Performance: A Practical Alternative to Physiological Testing in Trained Swimmers.
AU - Bryce J O Lanigan
AU - Martyn J Binnie
AU - Peter Peeling
AU - Brendan R Scott
AU - Jeremiah J Peiffer
AU - Brad Wall
AU - Eoghan Trihy
AU - Lachlan Mitchell
AU - David B Pyne
AU - Paul S R Goods
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - European journal of sport science
DO - 10.1002/ejsc.70256
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42894481
AB - Anaerobic speed reserve (ASR) and critical speed (CS) offer practical, performance-based estimates of physiological tolerances, and can be derived from maximal aerobic speed (MAS) and maximal sprint speed (MSS) in swimming. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of ASR and CS for 200 m front crawl performance in trained swimmers, and whether the addition of physiological markers could improve model accuracy. Seventeen trained male (n = 8) and female (n = 9) swimmers completed three maximal front crawl time-trials (50, 200, and 400 m) on different days, with 50 m (MSS) and 400 m (MAS) used to determine ASR and CS. Blood gas variables, blood lactate concentration (BLa), peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak), blood bicarbonate concentration (HCO₃), and blood pH were measured pre- and post-trial. Linear regression models were developed, with multivariate analysis of variance assessing the impact of distance on all variables. MSS was the best predictor of 200 m performance (R² = 0.83), followed by CS (R² = 0.69), whereas ASR provided moderate predictive capabilities (R² = 0.36). The addition of CS to MSS provided our strongest two-factor model (R² = 0.93), decreasing mean absolute error (MAE) from 2.41 to 1.62 s, closely followed by MSS + ASR (R² = 0.92, MAE = 1.74 s). Physiological markers of aerobic (VO2peak: r = 0.44, p > 0.05) and anaerobic capacity (ΔHCO₃: r = 0.54; ΔpH: r = 0.48; and ΔBLa: r = 0.57, all p < 0.05) were only moderately correlated with 200 m front crawl performance, and didn't meaningfully improve regression models. MSS provided the highest prediction of 200 m times, whereas ASR and CS provide practical alternatives to the collection of physiological variables which further distinguish performance potential in swimming cohorts.
SN - 1746-1391
SN - 1536-7290
ER -