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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0PLOS One

The silent storm: How climate, food commodity prices, and political stability fuel Somalia’s inflation crisis

  • Abdimalik Ali Warsame1
  • Khadar Ahmed Dirie2
  • Amir Mohamud Mohamed1
  1. 1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences, Hormuud University, Mogadishu, Somalia
  2. 2Department of Economics, Faculty of Managerial Sciences, Abdullah Gül University, Kayseri, Türkiye
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Abstract

In fragile economies, inflation is a critical macroeconomic issue for household well-being in vulnerable nations. As prices increase, at-risk families are forced to diminish essential consumption, remove children from formal education, and forsake long-term developmental goals to satisfy immediate survival requirements. In this regard, this study examines the impact of climate change, food commodity prices, and political stability on inflation in Somalia. Unlike previous studies, this study employs a novel Kernel regularized least squares (KRLS) machine learning method, time-varying Granger causality, and an innovative supremum right-tail Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to examine explosive tendencies in data series. The results of the explosive-behavior analysis identify one period of statistically explosive dynamics in the consumer price index (2006–2022), food commodity prices (2010–2014), and sugar commodity prices (2010–2012). In addition, the time-varying Granger causality between the sampled variables is observed. The empirical results of the KRLS method indicated that food commodity prices and average temperature have a positive and increasing marginal effect on inflation, whereas average rainfall and political stability reduce it with a decreasing marginal effect. These results are also robust for various econometric methods and disaggregate food commodity prices, including sugar, oil, and meat commodities. The study findings highlight the importance of implementing a composite strategy that enhances climate resilience, stabilizes food systems, and improves political governance as a possible solution to fighting inflation in fragile economies such as Somalia.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{warsame2026silent,
  title = {{The silent storm: How climate, food commodity prices, and political stability fuel Somalia’s inflation crisis}},
  author = {Abdimalik Ali Warsame and Khadar Ahmed Dirie and Amir Mohamud Mohamed},
  journal = {PLOS One},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0356334},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0356334},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The silent storm: How climate, food commodity prices, and political stability fuel Somalia’s inflation crisis
AU  - Abdimalik Ali Warsame
AU  - Khadar Ahmed Dirie
AU  - Amir Mohamud Mohamed
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/04
JO  - PLOS One
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0356334
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0356334
AB  - In fragile economies, inflation is a critical macroeconomic issue for household well-being in vulnerable nations. As prices increase, at-risk families are forced to diminish essential consumption, remove children from formal education, and forsake long-term developmental goals to satisfy immediate survival requirements. In this regard, this study examines the impact of climate change, food commodity prices, and political stability on inflation in Somalia. Unlike previous studies, this study employs a novel Kernel regularized least squares (KRLS) machine learning method, time-varying Granger causality, and an innovative supremum right-tail Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to examine explosive tendencies in data series. The results of the explosive-behavior analysis identify one period of statistically explosive dynamics in the consumer price index (2006–2022), food commodity prices (2010–2014), and sugar commodity prices (2010–2012). In addition, the time-varying Granger causality between the sampled variables is observed. The empirical results of the KRLS method indicated that food commodity prices and average temperature have a positive and increasing marginal effect on inflation, whereas average rainfall and political stability reduce it with a decreasing marginal effect. These results are also robust for various econometric methods and disaggregate food commodity prices, including sugar, oil, and meat commodities. The study findings highlight the importance of implementing a composite strategy that enhances climate resilience, stabilizes food systems, and improves political governance as a possible solution to fighting inflation in fragile economies such as Somalia.
SN  - 1932-6203
ER  -