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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Veterinary and Animal Science

Nonlinear and lagged association between ambient temperature and pre-weaning piglet mortality in Cuba

  • O. Fonseca-Rodríguez1,2
  • E.A. Curbelo-Benítez3
  • F.A. Morales-Calvo1,2
  • L. Pailler-García1,2
  • M.E. Licourt-Hernández3
  • O. Uffo-Reinosa4
  • P. Alfonso3
  • D. de las Nieves Montano-Valle3
4 affiliations
  1. 1Unitat mixta d’Investigació IRTA-UAB en Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, 08193, Spain
  2. 2IRTA. Programa de Sanitat Animal, Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Catalonia, 08193, Spain
  3. 3Epidemiology Group, National Center for Animal and Plant Health (CENSA), World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) Collaborating Center for the Reduction of the Risk of Disaster in Animal Health, San José de las Lajas, Cuba
  4. 4Centro Nacional de Sanidad Agropecuaria (CENSA), Laboratorio de Ensayo para el Control de la Calidad de los Alimentos (CENLAC), San José de las Lajas, Cuba
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Abstract

Climate change is increasing heat exposure, yet epidemiological evidence on temperature-related mortality in pre-weaning piglets remains limited, particularly in humid tropical production systems. We assessed the immediate and delayed association between daily mean ambient temperature and pre-weaning piglet mortality using records from 14 commercial farms in 12 Cuban municipalities during 2022–2024 (17,599 deaths). Farms mainly use open or semi-open naturally ventilated maternity buildings with limited active microclimate control. Municipality-level temperature and relative humidity were obtained from ERA5-Land. We applied a space–time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression and a distributed lag non-linear model over lags 0–7 days, adjusting for relative humidity. The cumulative temperature–mortality association was non-linear and strongly heat-dominated, with a model-derived minimum-mortality temperature (MMT) of 23.7 °C; the increase at the extreme cold tail was less precise. Effects were predominantly acute. At lag 0, the estimated RRs were elevated at both the maximum observed temperature of 31.2 °C (RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.06–2.09) and the minimum of 14.3 °C (RR 2.26, 95% CI 1.27–4.02); however, cold effects attenuated rapidly and contributed little to the overall burden. The estimated temperature-attributable fraction was 16.6%, with most of the burden associated with temperatures above the MMT (15.5%). Most heat-attributable deaths occurred on non-extreme warm days above the minimum-mortality temperature. Exposure to temperatures at or above the 99th percentile (P99) of the farm-day temperature distribution accounted for 0.7%. These findings support routine heat-risk management in farrowing environments to help reduce pre-weaning mortality and strengthen climate resilience in tropical swine systems.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{fonsecarodriguez2026nonlinear,
  title = {{Nonlinear and lagged association between ambient temperature and pre-weaning piglet mortality in Cuba}},
  author = {O. Fonseca-Rodríguez and E.A. Curbelo-Benítez and F.A. Morales-Calvo and L. Pailler-García and M.E. Licourt-Hernández and O. Uffo-Reinosa and P. Alfonso and D. de las Nieves Montano-Valle},
  journal = {Veterinary and Animal Science},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1016/j.vas.2026.100909},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vas.2026.100909},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Nonlinear and lagged association between ambient temperature and pre-weaning piglet mortality in Cuba
AU  - O. Fonseca-Rodríguez
AU  - E.A. Curbelo-Benítez
AU  - F.A. Morales-Calvo
AU  - L. Pailler-García
AU  - M.E. Licourt-Hernández
AU  - O. Uffo-Reinosa
AU  - P. Alfonso
AU  - D. de las Nieves Montano-Valle
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/22
JO  - Veterinary and Animal Science
DO  - 10.1016/j.vas.2026.100909
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vas.2026.100909
AB  - Climate change is increasing heat exposure, yet epidemiological evidence on temperature-related mortality in pre-weaning piglets remains limited, particularly in humid tropical production systems. We assessed the immediate and delayed association between daily mean ambient temperature and pre-weaning piglet mortality using records from 14 commercial farms in 12 Cuban municipalities during 2022–2024 (17,599 deaths). Farms mainly use open or semi-open naturally ventilated maternity buildings with limited active microclimate control. Municipality-level temperature and relative humidity were obtained from ERA5-Land. We applied a space–time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression and a distributed lag non-linear model over lags 0–7 days, adjusting for relative humidity. The cumulative temperature–mortality association was non-linear and strongly heat-dominated, with a model-derived minimum-mortality temperature (MMT) of 23.7 °C; the increase at the extreme cold tail was less precise. Effects were predominantly acute. At lag 0, the estimated RRs were elevated at both the maximum observed temperature of 31.2 °C (RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.06–2.09) and the minimum of 14.3 °C (RR 2.26, 95% CI 1.27–4.02); however, cold effects attenuated rapidly and contributed little to the overall burden. The estimated temperature-attributable fraction was 16.6%, with most of the burden associated with temperatures above the MMT (15.5%). Most heat-attributable deaths occurred on non-extreme warm days above the minimum-mortality temperature. Exposure to temperatures at or above the 99th percentile (P99) of the farm-day temperature distribution accounted for 0.7%. These findings support routine heat-risk management in farrowing environments to help reduce pre-weaning mortality and strengthen climate resilience in tropical swine systems.
SN  - 2451-943X
ER  -