Divergent nitrogen transition pathways during global agricultural development
- 1University of the Basque Country
Abstract
Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs underpin global food production, but increasing protein provision while limiting agricultural N pressure remains a major sustainability challenge. Here, we analyzed changes in N use, cropland N surplus and protein supply across 130 countries from 1992 to 2022 to assess whether recurrent N-transition patterns emerge during agricultural and economic development. Countries followed divergent trajectories rather than converging toward a common N transition. Absolute decoupling, with increasing protein supply and declining cropland N surplus, occurred in 35.4% of countries, while others showed relative improvements or increasing N pressure. Cropland N surplus rose more steeply as agricultural N inputs intensified. Long-term trajectories revealed contrasting forms of N-system reorganization, from persistently lower-pressure systems to intensifying systems. Absolute decoupling occurred across diverse economic contexts and was not systematically associated with development level. Higher-development countries that decoupled generally reduced N surplus from higher starting levels but still ended with higher surpluses. Thus, increasing protein provision while reducing N surplus is achievable, but improvement does not necessarily imply convergence toward low N pressure.
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BibTeX
@misc{bozalleorri2026divergent,
title = {{Divergent nitrogen transition pathways during global agricultural development}},
author = {A. Bozal-Leorri and M. Corrochano-Monsalve},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.03.749081},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.03.749081v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Divergent nitrogen transition pathways during global agricultural development
AU - A. Bozal-Leorri
AU - M. Corrochano-Monsalve
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/03
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.03.749081
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.03.749081v1
AB - Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs underpin global food production, but increasing protein provision while limiting agricultural N pressure remains a major sustainability challenge. Here, we analyzed changes in N use, cropland N surplus and protein supply across 130 countries from 1992 to 2022 to assess whether recurrent N-transition patterns emerge during agricultural and economic development. Countries followed divergent trajectories rather than converging toward a common N transition. Absolute decoupling, with increasing protein supply and declining cropland N surplus, occurred in 35.4% of countries, while others showed relative improvements or increasing N pressure. Cropland N surplus rose more steeply as agricultural N inputs intensified. Long-term trajectories revealed contrasting forms of N-system reorganization, from persistently lower-pressure systems to intensifying systems. Absolute decoupling occurred across diverse economic contexts and was not systematically associated with development level. Higher-development countries that decoupled generally reduced N surplus from higher starting levels but still ended with higher surpluses. Thus, increasing protein provision while reducing N surplus is achievable, but improvement does not necessarily imply convergence toward low N pressure.
ER -