Does the inverse distance ladder rule out late-time solutions to the Hubble tension? A model-independent test using DES-Dovekie supernovae and DESI DR2 BAO
Abstract
It has been argued that the inverse distance ladder disfavours late-time solutions to the Hubble tension. We test this with a cosmographic expansion where H is a fourth-order polynomial in $1 - a$. We combine the uncalibrated DES-Dovekie SNIa with DESI~DR2 BAO, assuming a standard sound horizon rd = 147.05 ± 0.30~Mpc. Using only DES SNIa yields H0 = 76.25 ± 2.87 km/s/Mpc, which is 3.1σ above the CMB-calibrated ΛCDM prediction but consistent with SH0ES (1.0σ). Adding the legacy SNIa decreases H0 to 67.98 ± 0.69 km/s/Mpc, 4.7σ below SH0ES. The $8.27$ km/s/Mpc drop in H0 upon including the legacy SNIa cannot be attributed to expected sample variance: under a fiducial ΛCDM model, only 1.24% of 104 mock realisations exhibit such a large H0 shift due to the changed redshift sampling. This points to a systematic tension between DES and legacy SNIa datasets. We next add local H0 anchors (the bright siren, SNII, TRGB + SBF) and test a parametrisation where the ΛCDM H(z) is enhanced by ΔH(z) = A exp (−z/z1). We recover H0 = 70.00+4.78−0.98 km/s/Mpc and z1 < 0.086 at 1σ confidence using DES SNIa, but H0 = 67.66 ± 1.01 km/s/Mpc and z1 is unconstrained using DES + legacy. Late-time solutions are thus viable with the homogeneous DES catalogue, but not with the legacy SNIa as published. Allowing them to be arbitrarily recalibrated relative to the main DES sample yields an inferred offset of ΔMlegacy = 0.0646 ± 0.0391~mag, raising the predicted H0 to 71.03 ± 1.99 km/s/Mpc. Ongoing SNIa surveys like DEBASS will provide a homogeneous sample of SNIa down to redshifts accessible via the distance ladder, assessing the validity of the current legacy samples and hence the feasibility of late-time solutions to the Hubble tension.
Related
- Response to "Late Time Dynamical Dark Energy and the CMB-Distance Ladder Tension"
- Revisiting the Hubble tension with an inverse power-law early dark energy
- A cosmological intercept tension in local distance ladders
- GPAge: a Global Parameterization based on cosmic Age for some unified early-time and late-time solutions to the Hubble tension
- Guide for the Hubble Tension: Mid-Time Solutions and Generalized PAge Parameterizations
BibTeX
@misc{najera2026does,
title = {{Does the inverse distance ladder rule out late-time solutions to the Hubble tension? A model-independent test using DES-Dovekie supernovae and DESI DR2 BAO}},
author = {José Antonio Nájera and Indranil Banik and Harry Desmond},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.23657},
eprint = {2610.23657},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23657},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Does the inverse distance ladder rule out late-time solutions to the Hubble tension? A model-independent test using DES-Dovekie supernovae and DESI DR2 BAO
AU - José Antonio Nájera
AU - Indranil Banik
AU - Harry Desmond
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.23657
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23657
AB - It has been argued that the inverse distance ladder disfavours late-time solutions to the Hubble tension. We test this with a cosmographic expansion where H is a fourth-order polynomial in $1 - a$. We combine the uncalibrated DES-Dovekie SNIa with DESI~DR2 BAO, assuming a standard sound horizon r_d = 147.05 ± 0.30~Mpc. Using only DES SNIa yields H_0 = 76.25 ± 2.87 km/s/Mpc, which is 3.1σ above the CMB-calibrated ΛCDM prediction but consistent with SH0ES (1.0σ). Adding the legacy SNIa decreases H_0 to 67.98 ± 0.69 km/s/Mpc, 4.7σ below SH0ES. The $8.27$ km/s/Mpc drop in H_0 upon including the legacy SNIa cannot be attributed to expected sample variance: under a fiducial ΛCDM model, only 1.24% of 10^4 mock realisations exhibit such a large H_0 shift due to the changed redshift sampling. This points to a systematic tension between DES and legacy SNIa datasets. We next add local H_0 anchors (the bright siren, SNII, TRGB + SBF) and test a parametrisation where the ΛCDM H(z) is enhanced by ΔH(z) = A exp (−z/z_1). We recover H_0 = 70.00^+4.78_−0.98 km/s/Mpc and z_1 < 0.086 at 1σ confidence using DES SNIa, but H_0 = 67.66 ± 1.01 km/s/Mpc and z_1 is unconstrained using DES + legacy. Late-time solutions are thus viable with the homogeneous DES catalogue, but not with the legacy SNIa as published. Allowing them to be arbitrarily recalibrated relative to the main DES sample yields an inferred offset of ΔM_legacy = 0.0646 ± 0.0391~mag, raising the predicted H_0 to 71.03 ± 1.99 km/s/Mpc. Ongoing SNIa surveys like DEBASS will provide a homogeneous sample of SNIa down to redshifts accessible via the distance ladder, assessing the validity of the current legacy samples and hence the feasibility of late-time solutions to the Hubble tension.
ER -