Building materials and emissions from rebuilding under increasing climate-driven flood hazards
Abstract
Floods threaten lives and infrastructure, while recovery and reconstruction require materials whose production generates greenhouse gas emissions. These material needs and emissions remain insufficiently quantified. Here we assess the impacts of riverine and coastal flooding on building materials across Europe under climate change and land subsidence. Baseline annual replacement demand is about 30 million tonnes of materials, generating about 9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. With flood protection maintained but not upgraded, both could increase more than tenfold by 2080 under a moderate emissions scenario, driven by coastal flooding. Impacts could be about 22% higher under a high emissions scenario. Cumulative replacement emissions over 2024–2080 under the moderate scenario could reach 4.0 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, exceeding ten times Europe’s annual building material production emissions in 2020. Increasing both mitigation and adaptation efforts is essential to reduce material losses, further emissions and human suffering.
Related
- Climate Change Finance and Carbon Offsets: Addressing Global Climate Challenges through Innovative Funding and Emissions Reduction Mechanisms
- Arctic climate tipping points under delayed CO2 emissions mitigation
- The impact of spatial form on carbon emissions from building energy use and photovoltaic carbon reductions in residential neighborhoods
- Near-term climate impacts are roughly linear in cumulative CO2 emissions
- Spaces of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions compatible with climate boundaries
BibTeX
@article{zhong2026building,
title = {{Building materials and emissions from rebuilding under increasing climate-driven flood hazards}},
author = {Xiaoyang Zhong and Tomer Fishman and Timothy Tiggeloven and Yoav Peled and Yi Jin and Philip J. Ward and Paul Behrens},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-79185-2},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-79185-2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Building materials and emissions from rebuilding under increasing climate-driven flood hazards
AU - Xiaoyang Zhong
AU - Tomer Fishman
AU - Timothy Tiggeloven
AU - Yoav Peled
AU - Yi Jin
AU - Philip J. Ward
AU - Paul Behrens
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-79185-2
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-79185-2
AB - Floods threaten lives and infrastructure, while recovery and reconstruction require materials whose production generates greenhouse gas emissions. These material needs and emissions remain insufficiently quantified. Here we assess the impacts of riverine and coastal flooding on building materials across Europe under climate change and land subsidence. Baseline annual replacement demand is about 30 million tonnes of materials, generating about 9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. With flood protection maintained but not upgraded, both could increase more than tenfold by 2080 under a moderate emissions scenario, driven by coastal flooding. Impacts could be about 22% higher under a high emissions scenario. Cumulative replacement emissions over 2024–2080 under the moderate scenario could reach 4.0 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, exceeding ten times Europe’s annual building material production emissions in 2020. Increasing both mitigation and adaptation efforts is essential to reduce material losses, further emissions and human suffering.
SN - 2041-1723
ER -