Spaces of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions compatible with climate boundaries
Abstract
Climate boundaries are planetary boundaries for the climate system: limits within which humanity can sustainably prosper. Here we introduce a modelling framework to analyse global warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and Arctic sea-ice melt. Using a reduced-form model, we map out anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management pathways compatible with these boundaries. We define safety levels as the probability to stay within one or several boundaries considering physical uncertainty. If CO₂ emissions peak in 2030, net-zero CO₂ is reached in 2050, and carbon dioxide removal capacity is 10 PgC yr−1, without solar radiation management, remaining within the global warming boundary of 2 °C exhibits a safety level of 80%. When all four boundaries are considered together, the safety level drops to 35%. Our results highlight key trade-offs in mitigation options and suggest a need to assess climate boundaries holistically to develop sustainable future strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{bossy2026spaces,
title = {{Spaces of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions compatible with climate boundaries}},
author = {Thomas Bossy and Philippe Ciais and Katsumasa Tanaka and Franck Lecocq and Philippe Bousquet and Thomas Gasser},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1038/s41558-025-02460-5},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05468799v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Spaces of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions compatible with climate boundaries
AU - Thomas Bossy
AU - Philippe Ciais
AU - Katsumasa Tanaka
AU - Franck Lecocq
AU - Philippe Bousquet
AU - Thomas Gasser
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/04
JO - Nature Climate Change
DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02460-5
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05468799v1
AB - Climate boundaries are planetary boundaries for the climate system: limits within which humanity can sustainably prosper. Here we introduce a modelling framework to analyse global warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and Arctic sea-ice melt. Using a reduced-form model, we map out anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management pathways compatible with these boundaries. We define safety levels as the probability to stay within one or several boundaries considering physical uncertainty. If CO₂ emissions peak in 2030, net-zero CO₂ is reached in 2050, and carbon dioxide removal capacity is 10 PgC yr−1, without solar radiation management, remaining within the global warming boundary of 2 °C exhibits a safety level of 80%. When all four boundaries are considered together, the safety level drops to 35%. Our results highlight key trade-offs in mitigation options and suggest a need to assess climate boundaries holistically to develop sustainable future strategies.
SN - 1758-678X
SN - 1758-6798
ER -