The Potential Public Health Benefit of mRNA-1010 for Influenza Among Older Adults >=65 Years in the United States
- 1Moderna, Inc.
Abstract
Background/ObjectivesOlder adults are at high risk of influenza-related severe disease and complications. HD-IIV, currently recommended for adults [≥]65 years, is egg-based and may be subject to egg-adapted mutations. An mRNA-based vaccine for influenza, mRNA-1010, has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Given the clinical benefits observed in mRNA-1010 clinical trials and potential to avoid egg-adapted mutations, this analysis explores the clinical impact of mRNA-1010 compared to HD-IIV in those [≥]65 years in the United States.
MethodsThis study used a decision-analytic model of influenza infection and downstream outcomes to project influenza burden with each vaccine over a one-year timeframe. Vaccine coverage, HD-IIV vaccine effectiveness (VE) and influenza epidemiology was estimated based upon Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The relative VE (rVE) for mRNA-1010 vs. HD-IIV was modelled based on data from the clinical trial and published literature on the impact of egg adaptation.
ResultsThe base-case analysis suggests mRNA-1010 may prevent an additional 232,200 symptomatic influenza infections, 130,000 outpatient cases, 21,100 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 2,200 influenza-related deaths compared to HD-IIV. The number needed to vaccination to prevent one hospitalization was 514 or mRNA-1010 vs no vaccine and 404 for HD-IIV versus no vaccine, for an incremental NNV of 110. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses results indicate that clinical outcomes prevented by mRNA-1010 are most sensitive to influenza incidence and VE.
ConclusionsmRNA-1010 may improve protection against influenza in US adults aged [≥]65 years, leading to meaningful reductions in the clinical influenza-related disease burden in older adults.
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BibTeX
@misc{fust2026potential,
title = {{The Potential Public Health Benefit of mRNA-1010 for Influenza Among Older Adults >=65 Years in the United States}},
author = {K. Fust and E. Beck and M. Kohli and S. Cartier and M. C. Weinstein and N. Van de Velde and K. Joshi},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - The Potential Public Health Benefit of mRNA-1010 for Influenza Among Older Adults >=65 Years in the United States
AU - K. Fust
AU - E. Beck
AU - M. Kohli
AU - S. Cartier
AU - M. C. Weinstein
AU - N. Van de Velde
AU - K. Joshi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/20
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308v1
AB - Background/ObjectivesOlder adults are at high risk of influenza-related severe disease and complications. HD-IIV, currently recommended for adults [≥]65 years, is egg-based and may be subject to egg-adapted mutations. An mRNA-based vaccine for influenza, mRNA-1010, has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Given the clinical benefits observed in mRNA-1010 clinical trials and potential to avoid egg-adapted mutations, this analysis explores the clinical impact of mRNA-1010 compared to HD-IIV in those [≥]65 years in the United States. MethodsThis study used a decision-analytic model of influenza infection and downstream outcomes to project influenza burden with each vaccine over a one-year timeframe. Vaccine coverage, HD-IIV vaccine effectiveness (VE) and influenza epidemiology was estimated based upon Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The relative VE (rVE) for mRNA-1010 vs. HD-IIV was modelled based on data from the clinical trial and published literature on the impact of egg adaptation. ResultsThe base-case analysis suggests mRNA-1010 may prevent an additional 232,200 symptomatic influenza infections, 130,000 outpatient cases, 21,100 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 2,200 influenza-related deaths compared to HD-IIV. The number needed to vaccination to prevent one hospitalization was 514 or mRNA-1010 vs no vaccine and 404 for HD-IIV versus no vaccine, for an incremental NNV of 110. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses results indicate that clinical outcomes prevented by mRNA-1010 are most sensitive to influenza incidence and VE. ConclusionsmRNA-1010 may improve protection against influenza in US adults aged [≥]65 years, leading to meaningful reductions in the clinical influenza-related disease burden in older adults.
ER -