Associations between Antimicrobial-Resistant Gram-Negative Infections and Climate-Related Exposure in a Tertiary Medical Center in Central Luzon, Philippines.
8 affiliations
- 1Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan.
- 2Global Health Policy Lab, International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Miyagi 980-8572, Japan.
- 3Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo 160-8582, Japan.
- 4Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan Institute for Health Security, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan.
- 5Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan.
- 6Department of Pathology, Laboratories and Blood Transfusion Services, Jose B. Lingad Memorial General Hospital, San Fernando, Pampanga 2000, Philippines.
- 7School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan.
- 8Graduate School, Angeles University Foundation, Angeles City, Pampanga 2009, Philippines.
Abstract
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) can worsen due to climate change. Several studies from China, Europe, and the USA have reported linear associations between weather and AMR. To provide additional evidence, this epidemiological study explored the nonlinear associations of short-term (28-day prior) and long-term (annual anomaly) temperature and rainfall exposure with AMR cases and multidrug resistance (MDR) at a single hospital in Pampanga, Philippines, a province with a tropical climate and high flood risk. Robust Poisson regression was used to estimate the associations between temperature and rainfall with AMR cases and the number of resistant antibiotics across subgroups of bacteria, priority pathogens, specimens, age, sex, and season. Several nonlinear associations exhibited an inverted U-shape, suggesting that the AMR risk peaks at specific temperatures or rainfall levels before declining at extreme values. Another recurring nonlinear association was U- or J-shaped, suggesting increased MDR severity or a greater number of resistant antibiotics with low or high rainfall. These findings underscore the possibility of a more complex link between climate and AMR, warranting further investigation across more locations and settings, whenever individual records are available. Future research should integrate ecological data to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these associations.
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BibTeX
@article{chua2026associations,
title = {{Associations between Antimicrobial-Resistant Gram-Negative Infections and Climate-Related Exposure in a Tertiary Medical Center in Central Luzon, Philippines.}},
author = {Paul L C Chua and Emerald J O'Brien and Shuhei Nomura and Sophearen Ith and Chris Fook Sheng Ng and Azenith May H Rafanan and Julie Anne B Cabantog and Masahiro Hashizume and Miguel Antonio Salazar},
journal = {Environment \& health (Washington, D.C.)},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1021/envhealth.5c00842},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42903709},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Associations between Antimicrobial-Resistant Gram-Negative Infections and Climate-Related Exposure in a Tertiary Medical Center in Central Luzon, Philippines.
AU - Paul L C Chua
AU - Emerald J O'Brien
AU - Shuhei Nomura
AU - Sophearen Ith
AU - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
AU - Azenith May H Rafanan
AU - Julie Anne B Cabantog
AU - Masahiro Hashizume
AU - Miguel Antonio Salazar
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/01
JO - Environment & health (Washington, D.C.)
DO - 10.1021/envhealth.5c00842
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42903709
AB - Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) can worsen due to climate change. Several studies from China, Europe, and the USA have reported linear associations between weather and AMR. To provide additional evidence, this epidemiological study explored the nonlinear associations of short-term (28-day prior) and long-term (annual anomaly) temperature and rainfall exposure with AMR cases and multidrug resistance (MDR) at a single hospital in Pampanga, Philippines, a province with a tropical climate and high flood risk. Robust Poisson regression was used to estimate the associations between temperature and rainfall with AMR cases and the number of resistant antibiotics across subgroups of bacteria, priority pathogens, specimens, age, sex, and season. Several nonlinear associations exhibited an inverted U-shape, suggesting that the AMR risk peaks at specific temperatures or rainfall levels before declining at extreme values. Another recurring nonlinear association was U- or J-shaped, suggesting increased MDR severity or a greater number of resistant antibiotics with low or high rainfall. These findings underscore the possibility of a more complex link between climate and AMR, warranting further investigation across more locations and settings, whenever individual records are available. Future research should integrate ecological data to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these associations.
SN - 2833-8278
ER -