Model-based assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yield under different crop management practices in the southeastern Oromia highlands, Ethiopia
4 affiliations
- 1Haramaya University, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, School of Plant Sciences, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.
- 2Director General (DG) Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, P.O. Box 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- 3Haramaya University, College of Agriculture, School of Plant Sciences, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
- 4Department of Agronomy, Everglades Research and Education Center, IFAS, University of Florida, Belle Glade, FL, USA
Abstract
Climate change presents a significant threat to wheat production in the tropical highlands of southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia. The DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model was calibrated using three years (2023–2025) of field observations at Kulumsa and independently validated using observations from Bore and Sinana. Future simulations used four CORDEX-Africa climate-model combinations under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for the near-future (2037–2068) and far-future (2069–2100) periods. A randomized block design tested 24 combinations of sowing date, nitrogen rate, and cultivar. Simulations showed consistent yield declines under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 , with smaller reductions in the near future and sharper losses under SSP5-8.5 far future. Early planting consistently reduced yield losses by 15–25% relative to normal planting and 25–40% relative to late planting. Nitrogen application improved yields, though with diminishing returns; 69–92 kg N ha⁻¹ maintained near-baseline yields under SSP2-4.5 , while benefits above 69 kg N ha⁻¹ were limited under SSP5-8.5. Varietal differences showed that Shaki outperformed Boru, showing higher baseline yields and smaller climate-induced reductions. Economic analysis indicated that early planting with 69–92 kg N ha⁻¹ for Shaki maximized profitability , with gross margins exceeding 258,000 ETB ha⁻¹ under SSP2-4.5 near future. Risk-averse farmers may prefer 69 kg N ha⁻¹ due to the small marginal gain from 92 kg N. No single practice fully offset losses under SSP5-8.5 , highlighting the need for integrated strategies combining early planting, optimized nitrogen, and resilient cultivars. Location-specific optimization remains essential , and decision-support tools such as DSSAT can guide targeted adaptation. Overall, while climate change will reduce wheat yields, strategic management can substantially buffer impacts , though high-emission futures require urgent climate action and robust adaptation planning.
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BibTeX
@article{tesfaye2026modelbased,
title = {{Model-based assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yield under different crop management practices in the southeastern Oromia highlands, Ethiopia}},
author = {Yared Tesfaye and Nigussie Dechassa and Yibekal Alemayehu and Dereje Ademe Birhan},
journal = {Environmental Challenges},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Model-based assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yield under different crop management practices in the southeastern Oromia highlands, Ethiopia
AU - Yared Tesfaye
AU - Nigussie Dechassa
AU - Yibekal Alemayehu
AU - Dereje Ademe Birhan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Environmental Challenges
DO - 10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701
AB - Climate change presents a significant threat to wheat production in the tropical highlands of southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia. The DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model was calibrated using three years (2023–2025) of field observations at Kulumsa and independently validated using observations from Bore and Sinana. Future simulations used four CORDEX-Africa climate-model combinations under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for the near-future (2037–2068) and far-future (2069–2100) periods. A randomized block design tested 24 combinations of sowing date, nitrogen rate, and cultivar. Simulations showed consistent yield declines under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 , with smaller reductions in the near future and sharper losses under SSP5-8.5 far future. Early planting consistently reduced yield losses by 15–25% relative to normal planting and 25–40% relative to late planting. Nitrogen application improved yields, though with diminishing returns; 69–92 kg N ha⁻¹ maintained near-baseline yields under SSP2-4.5 , while benefits above 69 kg N ha⁻¹ were limited under SSP5-8.5. Varietal differences showed that Shaki outperformed Boru, showing higher baseline yields and smaller climate-induced reductions. Economic analysis indicated that early planting with 69–92 kg N ha⁻¹ for Shaki maximized profitability , with gross margins exceeding 258,000 ETB ha⁻¹ under SSP2-4.5 near future. Risk-averse farmers may prefer 69 kg N ha⁻¹ due to the small marginal gain from 92 kg N. No single practice fully offset losses under SSP5-8.5 , highlighting the need for integrated strategies combining early planting, optimized nitrogen, and resilient cultivars. Location-specific optimization remains essential , and decision-support tools such as DSSAT can guide targeted adaptation. Overall, while climate change will reduce wheat yields, strategic management can substantially buffer impacts , though high-emission futures require urgent climate action and robust adaptation planning.
SN - 2667-0100
ER -