Global patterns and projected shifts in factors influencing staple crop yield stability
4 affiliations
- 1Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
- 2Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
- 3Mining College, Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, China
- 4Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; Corresponding author at: Sun Yat-Sen University, Earth and Environment Building D101, Guangzhou 510275, China.
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly destabilizing global agricultural systems by amplifying climate variability and intensifying extreme weather and climate events, yet the factors associated with variation in crop yield stability remain insufficiently quantified. Using global crop-yield data at a 0.5° spatial resolution, we developed a multilevel framework integrating random forest modeling and SHAP-based interpretation of predictor contributions at the variable, factor-category, and contribution-direction levels. We quantified associations of climate, management, and soil factors with yield stability in winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, and maize, and assessed potential shifts in the leading predictors under three future climate scenarios. Historical yield stability exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Areas with low stability (yield stability <4) accounted for 13.3%, 30.1%, 0.86%, and 8.03% of the cultivated areas of winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, and maize, respectively, and were concentrated mainly in low- to mid-latitudes and hot, dry transition zones. Mean climate was the leading factor category associated with historical stability in winter wheat, spring wheat, and soybean, whereas climate variability contributed more prominently for maize. Under future scenarios, global mean yield stability during 2031–2100 was projected to decline by 6–33%, 11–34%, and 13–41% under SSP1–RCP2.6, SSP2–RCP4.5, and SSP5–RCP8.5, respectively. The area fraction in which climate variability or extremes made the largest SHAP contribution increased by more than 30% relative to the historical period, with the greatest expansion under SSP5–RCP8.5. Although management–soil contributions partially offset negative climate contributions in some regions, the projections suggest that maintaining historical conditions may be insufficient to counter future climatic risks. Overall, our results reveal a systematic shift in the leading correlates of yield stability from mean climate toward climate variability and extremes, highlighting escalating risks to global food security.
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BibTeX
@article{xiao2026global,
title = {{Global patterns and projected shifts in factors influencing staple crop yield stability}},
author = {Kun Xiao and Ying Sun and Yuhang Tian and Jingfeng Xiong and Xiaoyou Chen and Wei Wu and Qinchuan Xin},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115806},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115806},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Global patterns and projected shifts in factors influencing staple crop yield stability
AU - Kun Xiao
AU - Ying Sun
AU - Yuhang Tian
AU - Jingfeng Xiong
AU - Xiaoyou Chen
AU - Wei Wu
AU - Qinchuan Xin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115806
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115806
AB - Climate change is increasingly destabilizing global agricultural systems by amplifying climate variability and intensifying extreme weather and climate events, yet the factors associated with variation in crop yield stability remain insufficiently quantified. Using global crop-yield data at a 0.5° spatial resolution, we developed a multilevel framework integrating random forest modeling and SHAP-based interpretation of predictor contributions at the variable, factor-category, and contribution-direction levels. We quantified associations of climate, management, and soil factors with yield stability in winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, and maize, and assessed potential shifts in the leading predictors under three future climate scenarios. Historical yield stability exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Areas with low stability (yield stability <4) accounted for 13.3%, 30.1%, 0.86%, and 8.03% of the cultivated areas of winter wheat, spring wheat, soybean, and maize, respectively, and were concentrated mainly in low- to mid-latitudes and hot, dry transition zones. Mean climate was the leading factor category associated with historical stability in winter wheat, spring wheat, and soybean, whereas climate variability contributed more prominently for maize. Under future scenarios, global mean yield stability during 2031–2100 was projected to decline by 6–33%, 11–34%, and 13–41% under SSP1–RCP2.6, SSP2–RCP4.5, and SSP5–RCP8.5, respectively. The area fraction in which climate variability or extremes made the largest SHAP contribution increased by more than 30% relative to the historical period, with the greatest expansion under SSP5–RCP8.5. Although management–soil contributions partially offset negative climate contributions in some regions, the projections suggest that maintaining historical conditions may be insufficient to counter future climatic risks. Overall, our results reveal a systematic shift in the leading correlates of yield stability from mean climate toward climate variability and extremes, highlighting escalating risks to global food security.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -