Stochasticity and Environmental Switching Shape Quorum Sensing Evolution in Bacterial Populations
Abstract
Quorum sensing (QS) is classically understood as a mechanism by which bacterial cells sense their own density, but environmental fluctuations make any single cell's estimate unreliable. An alternative view holds that populations pool individual estimates to reach reliable collective decisions. We investigate how a two-autoinducer toggle switch network enables this collective adaptation in fluctuating environments. At the single-cell level, the toggle switch is bistable. Membrane permeability controls autoinducer secretion and is the evolving trait. Using an individual-based model of a spatially structured population, we show that permeability evolves through a collective mechanism. Environmental frequency is the primary determinant of evolutionary outcome. Under strong asymmetry, the dominant trait reaches a high plateau. The trait linked to the rare environment stays low. It rises smoothly as its environment becomes more frequent. Total permeability stays close to a fixed budget; environmental frequency mainly sets how it is split between the two traits. When the two environments are equally frequent, no single trait wins. Both traits coexist, and noise asymmetry between the two sensing channels biases the levels at which they coexist rather than selecting a winner. Coexistence is also the slowest outcome to reach. Higher noise speeds adaptation, but the evolved permeability is non-monotonic in noise, peaking at an intermediate value. Earlier work found that more noise favors collective sensing as long as cells are correct on average. We develop a two-trait adaptive-dynamics model that unifies these regimes. Away from symmetry, it reduces to a closed one-dimensional equation that captures the individual-based results. At symmetry, weak cross-repression gives a single coexistence attractor, consistent with replicate populations maintaining both traits.
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BibTeX
@misc{kumar2026stochasticity,
title = {{Stochasticity and Environmental Switching Shape Quorum Sensing Evolution in Bacterial Populations}},
author = {Uttam Kumar and Hong-Yan Shih},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.10492},
eprint = {2610.10492},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10492},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Stochasticity and Environmental Switching Shape Quorum Sensing Evolution in Bacterial Populations
AU - Uttam Kumar
AU - Hong-Yan Shih
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.10492
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10492
AB - Quorum sensing (QS) is classically understood as a mechanism by which bacterial cells sense their own density, but environmental fluctuations make any single cell's estimate unreliable. An alternative view holds that populations pool individual estimates to reach reliable collective decisions. We investigate how a two-autoinducer toggle switch network enables this collective adaptation in fluctuating environments. At the single-cell level, the toggle switch is bistable. Membrane permeability controls autoinducer secretion and is the evolving trait. Using an individual-based model of a spatially structured population, we show that permeability evolves through a collective mechanism. Environmental frequency is the primary determinant of evolutionary outcome. Under strong asymmetry, the dominant trait reaches a high plateau. The trait linked to the rare environment stays low. It rises smoothly as its environment becomes more frequent. Total permeability stays close to a fixed budget; environmental frequency mainly sets how it is split between the two traits. When the two environments are equally frequent, no single trait wins. Both traits coexist, and noise asymmetry between the two sensing channels biases the levels at which they coexist rather than selecting a winner. Coexistence is also the slowest outcome to reach. Higher noise speeds adaptation, but the evolved permeability is non-monotonic in noise, peaking at an intermediate value. Earlier work found that more noise favors collective sensing as long as cells are correct on average. We develop a two-trait adaptive-dynamics model that unifies these regimes. Away from symmetry, it reduces to a closed one-dimensional equation that captures the individual-based results. At symmetry, weak cross-repression gives a single coexistence attractor, consistent with replicate populations maintaining both traits.
ER -